BMIE Market 40143

Breckinridge County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,756 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±672 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,285 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,939 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,889 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,475 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,249 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$738 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$155,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,329 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	141.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40143
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40143. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	49.2	49	40%	+19.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.8	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	55.1	55	25%	+13.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,756	63	40%	+25.1
Median household income (ACS)	59,475	29	40%	+11.5
Households (ACS)	2,285	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	35%	+26.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.1	40	25%	+9.9
Population (ACS)	5,756	63	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	59,475	29	20%	+5.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	30%	+22.8
20-year restaurant growth	37.5	57	20%	+11.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 6 · Burgers 4 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Quick service 8 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1020 Old State Rd 60	open
China King Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	511 Old State Rd 60	open
Dairy Queen Grill and Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	1006 Old US Hwy 60 E	open
Drane’s Kurve Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	145 Old Hwy, U.S 60	open
Green Valley II	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	114 2nd St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	American · Burgers	1120 Old Hwy 60 East	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · Chicken / wings	9263 Us-60	open
Jake's Place	Casual dining	American	145 Old Highway 60	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1116 Old Hwy 60	open
Miguel's El Gallo Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	Old State Rd 60	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	500 Old Hwy 60 E. Breckinridge	open
Pizza Tonight	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	72 Lucas Ln	open
Possum Trot Brewery	Brewery / taproom		2115 Morton Brown Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1114 Old Hwy 60	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1012 Old Highway 60	open
Tequila House And Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	230 S Main St	open
Teton Enteprises, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1116 Old Highway 60	open
The Brak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		114 W 2nd St	open
Three Sisters Cafe	Café	Coffee	230 S Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40143. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.