BMIE Market 40165

Bullitt County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	38,403 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,162 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,432 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±499 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	32,726 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,827 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,540 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,589 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$957 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$249,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,590 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	113.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	42 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40165
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+2.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+110.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	47 (range 43–51) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.68) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40165. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.68, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.5	80	40%	+32.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.1	68	35%	+23.9
Market Momentum Score	58.2	58	25%	+14.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	38,403	93	40%	+37.3
Median household income (ACS)	79,540	62	40%	+24.6
Households (ACS)	14,432	93	20%	+18.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.5	57	35%	+20.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.9	69	25%	+17.2
Population (ACS)	38,403	93	20%	+18.7
Median household income (ACS)	79,540	62	20%	+12.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	2.4	59	50%	+29.4
10-year restaurant growth	13.5	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (114)

By cuisine

American 19 · Pizza 19 · Sandwiches 12 · Burgers 11 · Coffee 10 · Mexican 10 · Chicken / wings 8 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Breakfast 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 64 · Quick service 31 · Bar 13 · Casual dining 10 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 8 · Coffee shop 7 · Café 6 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Other 4 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1208 Highway 44 E	open
Bearno's Pizza Bearno's Fern Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1220 Highway 44 E	open
Best Donuts of Shepherdsville KY	Restaurant (service type not stated)		142 Buffalo Run Rd	open
Biggby Coffee Mt. Washington/ Shepherdsville Biggby	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6340 KY-44	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	215 Conestoga Parkway	open
Brandy's Kitchen, LLC	Casual dining · Bar		Business, 4154 N Preston Hwy	open
Bros Billards	Food truck · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Latin American (other) · BBQ · Juice / smoothies	745 S Preston Hwy	open
Bullhorns Tavern	Bar		2858 Hwy 44 E	open
Bullitt Blends	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	544 Conestoga Pkwy	open
Bullitt County Ems	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 Salt Well Ct	open
Bullitt County Planning And Development	Restaurant (service type not stated)		149 N Walnut St # 3	open
Bullitt County Tires Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		615 N Buckman St	open
Bullitt County Wine & Whiskey Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		395 Paroquet Springs Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	315 Keystone Crossroads Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service		315 Keystone Crossroad Drive	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	311 Brenton Way	open
Buttered Bliss Home Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	111 Westwood Dr	open
Cattleman's Roadhouse Cattleman's Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	139 Historical Trl	open
Cedar Grove Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	142 Buffalo Run Rd	open
Charlie's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1578 Kentucky 44, Shepherdsville, KY 40165	open
Chesters Fried Chicken To Go Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Chicken / wings	1090 Cedar Grove Rd	open
Chilitos Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	142 Buffalo Run Rd Ste B	open
China 8	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	189 Adam Shepherd Pkwy #16	open
China Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	445 KY-44	open
City Limits	Bar		2858 HWY 44	open
Cluckers Shepherdsville Clutch City Cluckers	Bar · Casual dining	Chicken / wings	544 Conestoga Pkwy	open
Country Cupboard	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	275 Brenton Way	open
Crown Smoke Shop	Bar		227 Highway 44 E	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	184 N Joe B Hall Ave	open
Daniel's Little Mexico Daniel's Little Mexico2.0	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1707 Cedar Grove Rd Ste 1	open
Daniel's Little Mexico Daniel's Little Mexico2.0	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	544 Conestoga Pkwy Ste 8	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 S Lakeview Dr	open
Dockside Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		337 S Buckman St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	544 Conestoga Parkway #15	open
Donut express	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	263 KY-44	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	447 Hwy 44 E	open
EL BURRITO LOCO El Burrito Loco	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	142 Buffalo Run Rd	open
El Nopal Mexican Restaurante El Nopalito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	500 KY-44	open
El Tarasco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	445 Highway 44 E	open
Fazoli's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	210 Paroquet Springs Dr.	open
FiveStar Five star Meadville #3	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	2780 E Blue Lick Rd	open
Forest Edge Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1910 Clermont Rd	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	450 Conestoga Parkway	open
Fredneck's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		745 S Preston Hwy	open
Frisch's Big Boy	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	157 Keystone Crossroad Dr	open
Gatti's Pizza Mr Gatti's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	162 N Joe B Hall Ave	open
Go Ye Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	2389 Raymond Rd	open
Godfather's Pizza Express Godfather's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1090 Cedar Grove Road	open
Hometown Pizza - Bardstown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American		open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3390 Burkland Blvd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5229 CEDAR GROVE Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	2329 Kentucky 44	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	151 BUFFALO RUN Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	167 Clermont Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	667 Cedar Grove Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	815 S Preston Hwy	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	314 N Buckman St	open
Ice Ice Shavy	Dessert		154 Hwy 44 W	open
Isaac's Cafe	Café	Coffee	1701 Clermont Rd	open
J Mos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		250 E 4th St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		157 Keystone Crossroads Dr	open
JB’s Mac-N-Cheese & Spuds	Food truck		160 Frank E Simon Ave	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	418 Adam Shepherd Parkway Suite 104	open
Kentucky Bourbon Trail	Bar	American		open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	427 Highway 44 East	open
Knob Creek Bottling Plant	Winery / distillery / taproom		491 Happy Hollow Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	995 Clermont Road	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	445 44, KY-44 Ste 11	open
Lno Lifestyle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	211 Arnold Dr # B	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	542 Highway 44	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	135 Centre Dr	open
Moby Dick Moby Dick House of Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	180 Highland Ct	open
Mocha Mum’s Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	120 W Hebron Ln	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	335 Keystone Crossroad Dr	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	276 Keystone Crossroads Dr	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	189 Adam Shepherd Pkwy Ste. #23	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	100 Lawrence Ln	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	544 Conestoga Pkwy Ste 11	open
Pinkies Out Tea Parlor - Shepherdsville	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1325 Highway 44 E	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	259 Highway 44 East Bullitt	open
Pure Imagination	Dessert		165 Dawson Dr	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	187 Adam Shepherd Pkwy Ste 12	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	441 Adam Shepherd Pkwy	open
Roll With It Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	1707 Cedar Grove Rd	open
Salsarita's Fresh Mexican Grill Salsarita's Fresh Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	285 Keystone Crossroads Dr	open
Salt River Coffee Company Llc	Coffee shop	Coffee	291 S Buckman St	open
Sdi Operations, Shepherdsville, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		408 Highway 44 E	open
Slow Poke Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8910 Cedar Grove Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	408 Hwy 44 East	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	174 Keystone Crossing Drive	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	445 HWY 44 E Suite 16	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	545 Conestoga Pkwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2050 E Blue Lick Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	151 Brenton Way	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	120 N Joe B. Hall Ave.	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1961 E Blue Lick Rd	open
The boondocks bar and grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		3850 Beech Grv Rd	open
The Fish House & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		441 N Joe B Hall Ave	open
The Jim Beam Barn	Winery / distillery / taproom		2316-2324 Clermont Rd	open
The Meltdown	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Burgers	200 S Lakeview Dr	open
The Old Depot Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		181 Old Preston Hwy S	open
The Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	329 S Buckman St	open
Thornberry's Nex Generation [Thornberry's Bakery]	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1256 KY-44	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	161 Paroquet Springs Dr	open
Tumbleweed Tex Mex Grill & Margarita Bar Tumbleweed Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	380 Brenton Way	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	213 Joe B. Hall Ave	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2021 E Blue Lick Rd	open
Walmart Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	545 Conestoga Pkwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	158 Keystone Crossroad Dr.	open
White Castle White Castle	Quick service	Burgers · American	175 Keystone Crossroads Dr	open
Wight-Meyer Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		340 Meyer Dr	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		418 Adam Shepherd Pkwy	open
Family Kitchen Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		130 S Lakeview Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	20	19	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	24	24	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	29	27	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	32	29	10	17	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	36	32	13	19	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	35	32	15	17	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	30	28	12	16	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	38	36	15	19	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	33	30	10	19	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	33	31	11	19	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	36	34	13	20	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	38	37	11	25	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	34	32	9	22	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	35	32	9	22	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	36	34	8	25	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	43	39	12	26	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	45	41	15	25	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	43	38	13	23	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	41	37	10	25	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	40	34	10	22	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	36	33	10	21	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	40	37	12	23	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	43	40	11	28	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	45	41	12	28	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	42	39	11	27	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	43	40	10	29	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	47	43	12	30	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	46	41	12	27	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	51	42	11	29	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40165. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40110	4.4 mi	1	2008

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.