BMIE Market 40245
Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 39,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 15,048 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±783 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 30,109 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 11,303 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $122,948 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,539 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,688 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $445,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,892 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 32.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40245 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 8.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +35.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +137.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +245.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 43 (range 39–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.85) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40245. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.85, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 92.7 | 93 | 40% | +37.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 81.8 | 82 | 35% | +28.6 |
| Market Momentum Score | 71.1 | 71 | 25% | +17.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 39,835 | 94 | 40% | +37.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 122,948 | 91 | 40% | +36.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 15,048 | 93 | 20% | +18.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 35.7 | 75 | 35% | +26.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.5 | 74 | 25% | +18.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 39,835 | 94 | 20% | +18.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 122,948 | 91 | 20% | +18.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 5.6 | 62 | 50% | +31.0 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 35.7 | 75 | 30% | +22.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 137.5 | 88 | 20% | +17.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (72)
By cuisine
Mexican 9 · American 8 · Coffee 8 · Pizza 8 · Sandwiches 6 · Asian 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Japanese 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 3 · Sushi 3 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Breakfast 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 49 · Quick service 12 · Bar 9 · Coffee shop 6 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Time Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 12406 La Grange Rd #101 | open | |
| Anb Concessions Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 12424 Lagrange Rd | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 12418 La Grange Rd Suite #155 | open |
| Battlecandy | Dessert | 920 Lake Forest Pkwy | open | |
| Bearno's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 13829 English Villa Dr | open |
| Brix Wine Bar and Bistro | Bar | American | 12418 La Grange Rd | open |
| Bth Pizza, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Bubbakoo's Burritos Bubbakoo's Burritos | Quick service | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 12919 Factory Ln | open |
| Bzkc, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Checks BBQ & Blues | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | BBQ | 14049 Shelbyville Rd | open |
| Coffee Affair | Coffee shop | Coffee | 12418 La Grange Rd | open |
| Deenos Mobile | Quick service | Pizza · Mexican | 123 Forest Place Ct | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 125 South English Station Road | open |
| Double Dragon II | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 12480 La Grange Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 14101 Shelbyville Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee shop | Coffee | 12412 La Grange Rd | open |
| El Nopal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 12418 La Grange Rd | open |
| Fiesta Time | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 11000 Bay Run Dr | open |
| Fiesta Time Amigos Fiesta Time Amigos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 135 S English Station Rd | open |
| Firenza Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 12406 La Grange Rd | open |
| Forest Springs Nutrition | Café | Coffee | 12478 La Grange Rd | open |
| Gander | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 111 S English Station Rd | open |
| Golden Corral Jobs with TBD Foods | Restaurant (service type not stated) | open | ||
| Graeter's Ice Cream Graeter's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 13817 English Villa Dr | open |
| Jaggers Jaggers Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 13801 English Villa Dr | open |
| Jasmine Chinese Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Asian | 13825 English Villa Dr | open |
| Java Brewing Company | Coffee shop | Coffee | 135 S English Station Rd | open |
| Jimmy John's Jimmy John's | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 12915 Factory Ln | open |
| JW Cafe & Bakery | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 2301 Terra Crossing Blvd | open |
| KFC KFC | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Chicken / wings · Burgers | 12420 Lagrange Road | open |
| Leaha’s Lattes | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 14041 Shelbyville Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 12418 La Grange Rd #150 | open |
| Load It Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 12905 Factory Ln | open |
| Los Plebes Mexican Seafood & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Seafood | 2610 Chamberlain Ln | open |
| Los Toltecas Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 16211 Shelbyville Rd | open |
| Mark's Feed Store Marks Feed Store Louisville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 3309 Collins Ln | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 12414 La Grange Rd | open |
| Mi Tierra Mexican Grill 2 Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2610 Chamberlain Ln | open | |
| New Direction Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 2630 Chamberlain Ln | open | |
| Oishii Ramen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian | 12472 La Grange Rd | open |
| Old School NY Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 12907 Factory Ln | open |
| Olive Garden Olive Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | open | |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 14041 shelbyville rd | open |
| Philly Express 502 | Quick service · Bar | American | 12406 La Grange Rd | open |
| Quezadillas and Bar Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 2300 Terra Crossing Blvd #104 | open |
| Rootie's Sports Bar & Grille | Bar | 12205 Westport Rd | open | |
| Rosie's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 13829 English Villa Dr | open |
| Ryan Bridgeman, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Schanen Investments, Llc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2610 Chamberlain Ln | open | |
| Sfr Ii, Llc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Stacey’s Donuts | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 12907 Factory Ln | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 12911 Factory Ln | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 14000 Shelbyville Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2300 Terra Crossing Blvd #101 | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 12907 Factory Ln | open |
| Sugar & Faith Home Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 159 Long Run Rd | open |
| Sweetie Bakery, LLC | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 526 Belle St | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 12434 LaGrange Rd. | open |
| Tacos D Amor | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 243 Blankenbaker Pkwy | open | |
| Take Thai | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 12908 Factory Ln | open |
| The Block Gourmet Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 14041 Shelbyville Rd | open |
| The Goat Middletown | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 700 Landis Ridge Dr | open | |
| The Wet Spot | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halifax Dr | open | |
| Tinsley-bridgeman Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Up Properties Ii, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| White Buddha | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse | 12907 Factory Ln Ste D | open |
| Wild Eggs Wild Eggs Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 153 S English Station Rd | open |
| Wingstop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 12910 Factory Lane Ste 102 | open |
| Wmilco, Llc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3309 Collins Ln | open | |
| Zaxby's Zaxby's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · American | 13811 Terra View Trl | open |
| ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 2500 Terra Crossing Blvd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 12 | 11 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 15 | 14 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 14 | 14 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 13 | 13 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 25 | 25 | 7 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 23 | 22 | 6 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 24 | 23 | 4 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 23 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 22 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 26 | 25 | 7 | 13 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 27 | 26 | 7 | 14 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 29 | 28 | 7 | 17 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 32 | 31 | 10 | 15 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 29 | 28 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 30 | 29 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 36 | 33 | 13 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 40 | 36 | 17 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 37 | 34 | 15 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 39 | 35 | 15 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 40 | 36 | 17 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 42 | 38 | 16 | 19 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 44 | 38 | 15 | 19 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
| ZCTA | Distance | Restaurants | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40056 | 3.6 mi | 4 | 2020 |