BMIE Market 41035

Grant County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,415 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±686 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,504 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±286 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,785 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,179 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,138 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$870 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$198,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,507 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	102.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41035
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+17.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+122.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 18–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41035. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.3	61	40%	+24.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.6	54	35%	+18.8
Market Momentum Score	65.7	66	25%	+16.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,415	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	68,138	44	40%	+17.6
Households (ACS)	4,504	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.5	44	25%	+11.0
Population (ACS)	11,415	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	68,138	44	20%	+8.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+16.5
20-year restaurant growth	17.7	44	20%	+8.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 12 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Mexican 3 · Breakfast 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 15 · Bakery 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	65 Blackburn Lane	open
Beans	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	21 Taft Hwy	open
Brothers Barbecue Smokehouse	Catering · Food truck	BBQ	39 Broadway St	open
Browning's Country Ham	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	12 S Main St	open
Browning's County Ham Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1108 Fashion Ridge Rd	open
Bub’s Pub	Bar		2100 Fords Mill Rd	open
Casa Martini	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	90 Blackburn Ln	open
Cherry Sweet Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	275 McCoy Rd	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1131 Fashion Ridge Rd. I-75 & SR 22	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	90 S Main St. Ste 1 A	open
Dry Ridge Commons	Quick service		96 Blackburn Ln	open
Dry Ridge Polaris	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	18 Taft Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	59 Broadway St	open
EL Rio Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1000 Fashion Ridge Rd	open
Ella Mae’s Sundaes	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12 S Main St	open
Frisch's Big Boy	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Burgers · American	1000 Fashion	open
Gold Star Chili Gold Star	Quick service	Burgers · American	118 S Main St	open
Happy Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	73 Broadway St	open
Keep It Poppin, Llc.	Other · Dessert	Dessert	1118 Fashion Ridge Rd	open
Kellie's Homestead Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1108 Fashion Ridge Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	71 Broadway St	open
LaRosa's Pizzeria LaRosa's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	96 Blackburn Ln	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	76 Blackburn Lane	open
Moonbird	Bar		100 Arbor Dr	open
Noah’s Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American	77 Broadway St	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	61 Broadway St Ste 7	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	77 Broadway St	open
Peppers Mexican Grill Dry Ridge Peppers Mexican Grill Dry Ridge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1000 Fashion Ridge Rd	open
Philbilly's Tavern	Bar		117 Ambassador Dr	open
Sherman Tavern	Bar		3985 Dixie Hwy	open
Skyline Chili Skyline Chili	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	American · Hot dogs	96 Blackburn Ln	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza Snappy Tomato Pizza - Union City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	118 School Rd	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza - Dry Ridge Snappy Tomato Pizza - Union City	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	200 School Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	69 Broadway St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	59 Broadway St Ste 3	open
Vanessa's Diner / Vanessa's Heavenly Temptations	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	119 S Main St	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	64 Broadway St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	20 Ferguson Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	72 Broadway St	open
Wich Doctor Sandwich Shop Wich Doctor	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	21 N Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	16	14	3	11	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	14	4	10	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	18	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	18	17	7	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	8	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	19	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	23	23	10	11	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	21	21	10	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	21	11	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	20	11	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	8	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	18	5	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	18	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	19	5	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	19	5	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	20	5	14	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41035. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.