BMIE Market 41224

Martin County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,783 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±568 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,414 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,185 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$38,816 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$664 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$92,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,620 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	83.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41224
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	38 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41224. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	37.5	38	40%	+15.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.8	52	35%	+18.1
Market Momentum Score	85.3	85	25%	+21.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,783	60	40%	+23.9
Median household income (ACS)	38,816	5	40%	+2.2
Households (ACS)	1,600	57	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	83.3	89	35%	+31.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23	30	25%	+7.6
Population (ACS)	4,783	60	20%	+11.9
Median household income (ACS)	38,816	5	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	83.3	94	50%	+47.1
10-year restaurant growth	83.3	89	30%	+26.8
20-year restaurant growth	37.5	57	20%	+11.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 8 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 9 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Bar 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cassady's BBQ & Shaved Ice	Food truck	BBQ · American	Main Street	open
Cold Stop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1488 E Main St	open
Dairy Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Hot dogs	210 E Main St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	122 Board Walk	open
Fletcher's Roadside Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2222 Blacklog Rd	open
Gator's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		456 Setser Rd	open
Giovanni's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3256 Blacklog Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11 Kirk Plaza Rd	open
Ice'd Up	Dessert		281 Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2018 Main Street	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7900 KY-645	open
Metrobilly's	Specialty food shop · Quick service	American · Sandwiches	69 Nichols St	open
Mi Xochimilco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	2038 Blacklog Rd	open
Miss Ida's Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	74 W Main St	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Route 40 Blacklog Road	open
Pizza Stop	Quick service	Pizza · American	1488 Blacklog Rd	open
Samurai Hibachi & Sushi Inez	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	402 E Main St	open
Sour Doe Farmstand	Bakery	Bakery	3817 Rockcastle Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	304 Main Street Suite 100	open
SugarMommas Sweet Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	62 W Main St	open
The Grill	Quick service	American · Burgers	BLACKLOG Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41224. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
41214	1.8 mi	1	2016
41262	4.9 mi	1	2000

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.