BMIE Market 41240
Johnson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 6,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±690 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 2,732 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±335 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 6,916 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 3,295 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $38,041 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,174 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 48.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $673 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $148,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,072 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 36.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41240 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 39.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -13.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +13.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -7.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 25 (range 22–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 30 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 41 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 23 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41240. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 30 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 40.9 | 41 | 40% | +16.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 23.0 | 23 | 35% | +8.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 21.4 | 21 | 25% | +5.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 41 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 6,408 | 64 | 40% | +25.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 38,041 | 5 | 40% | +2.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 2,732 | 66 | 20% | +13.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 23 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -13.3 | 17 | 35% | +5.8 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 40.6 | 13 | 25% | +3.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 6,408 | 64 | 20% | +12.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 38,041 | 5 | 20% | +1.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -13.3 | 16 | 50% | +8.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -13.3 | 17 | 30% | +5.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 13.0 | 41 | 20% | +8.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (55)
By cuisine
American 17 · Pizza 9 · Burgers 5 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Quick service 20 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alley on Main 241 Main Street Paintsville,ky41240 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | open | |
| Arby's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Sandwiches | 455 Mayo Plz | open |
| Banjo Branch | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | open | |
| Bob Evans Bob Evans | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Breakfast | 631 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 341 N Mayo TRL | open |
| Carnival Cravings | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 531 Broadway St | open | |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 906 Broadway St 906 Broadway St | open |
| DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill | Quick service | 906 Broadway St | open | |
| Fazoli's Fazoli's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 337 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Fiesta Place | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 461 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Giovanni's Pizza Giovanni's Fairborn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 257 Court St | open |
| Gracefully Made | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | open | |
| Hardee's Hardee's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 545 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Hawaiian Shaved Ice | Dessert | Dessert | 1569 Euclid Ave | open |
| Heavenly Hot Dogs & more | Quick service | Hot dogs · Sandwiches | 521 3rd St | open |
| Honey B's Restaurant and Lounge | Casual dining · Bar | American | 624 James S Trimble Blvd | open |
| Hot Rod's Pizza - Paintsville Hot Rod's Pizza Allen, Ky | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 221 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Hunt Brothers Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5141 US 23 | open |
| JB's Sports Lounge | Catering · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American · Breakfast | James S Trimble Boulevard | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 615 North Mayo Trail | open |
| Kpk Restaurant Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 501 Jefferson Ave Ste 164 | open | |
| Leo + River’s Baking Co. | Bakery | Bakery | 634 Euclid Ave | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 327 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Long John Silver's Long John Silver's | Quick service | Seafood · American | 405 N Mayo Trl | open |
| MaMo’s Ice Cream, Shaved Ice, and Moore | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Juice / smoothies | 605 Broadway St | open |
| McDonald's | Quick service | 470 N Mayo Trl | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 305 North Mayo Trail | open |
| Mi Finca | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 347 Main St | open |
| Mi Hacienda | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 421 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Momma G’s Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 120 Left Fork Tays Br | open | |
| Papa John's Papa John's | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza | 425 N MAYO TRL | open |
| Peking Dragon Peking Asian Cuisines | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 507 S Mayo Trail | open |
| Pig in a Poke Paintsville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 1055 Broadway St | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 611 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Porkey's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 419 Broadway St | open |
| Prime Diner And Grill | Casual dining | American | 316 Main St | open |
| Scary Sweet Sodas LLC | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | 863 US-23 | open | |
| Silver Spoon Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 509 Depot Rd | open |
| Sip city | Bar | 311 N Mayo Trl | open | |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 437 N Mayo Trail | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 525 Broadway | open |
| Sweet Oaks Bakery | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery | 435 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 603 N. Mayo Trail | open |
| Tailgaters Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 221 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Taqueria las Lalis Paintsville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 609 Broadway St | open |
| Taste Of Amish | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 950 Broadway St | open |
| The Barn House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 521 3rd St | open |
| The Caddy Shak | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 3000 KY-1107 | open |
| The Coffee House The Coffee House | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 347 Main St | open |
| The Patriot | Bar | British / Irish pub food | 111 Freedom Ln | open |
| Tres Hermanos Nunez | Mexican Tres Hermanos Nunez - Grayson | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 251 KY-40 | open |
| Tug Valley Arch, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1104 3rd St | open | |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 510 N Mayo Trl | open |
| Wilma's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 212 Court St | open |
| Camp Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 221 N Mayo Trl | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 28 | 28 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 21 | 21 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 22 | 22 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 21 | 21 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 20 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 23 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 14 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 25 | 25 | 9 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 26 | 26 | 12 | 13 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 26 | 26 | 11 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 28 | 28 | 11 | 15 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 27 | 27 | 11 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 30 | 30 | 12 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 32 | 32 | 13 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 27 | 27 | 10 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 28 | 27 | 10 | 16 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 29 | 28 | 8 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 31 | 30 | 10 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 29 | 28 | 9 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 26 | 25 | 9 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 30 | 28 | 13 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 28 | 27 | 14 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 27 | 26 | 14 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2022 |