BMIE Market 41653

Floyd County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,103 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±816 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,847 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,451 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,262 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$40,542 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,885 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$636 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$127,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,744 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	125.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41653
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+4.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+4.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+36.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 18–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41653. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	46.3	46	40%	+18.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.3	40	35%	+14.1
Market Momentum Score	57.0	57	25%	+14.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,103	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	40,542	6	40%	+2.6
Households (ACS)	4,847	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	4	49	35%	+17.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.4	29	25%	+7.4
Population (ACS)	11,103	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	40,542	6	20%	+1.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	4	60	50%	+30.2
10-year restaurant growth	4	49	30%	+14.7
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 17 · Pizza 13 · Burgers 7 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 4 · Mexican 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Asian 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Quick service 15 · Casual dining 9 · Bar 7 · Café 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Buffet 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1620 Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		1184 S Lake Dr	open
23 Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2010 Ky Route 321	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1308 N Lake Dr	open
Big Sandy Foods Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		429 Village Dr	open
Billy Ray's Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	101 N Front Ave	open
Charleys Philly Steaks	Other	Sandwiches	483 University Dr	open
Coyote Den	Casual dining · Bar		2813 KY-321	open
Dairy Cheer Prestonsburg	Quick service	Burgers · American	1384 N Lake Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1059 N Lake Dr	open
Dashing Sons Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	5000 KY-321	open
Dewey's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	419 Jenny Wiley Dr	open
El Azul Grande \| Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	132 Collins Cir	open
El Rodeo Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1566 N Lake Dr	open
Flowers Baking Co Flowers' discount Bakery Store	Bakery	Bakery	2106 KY-321	open
Ftd Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		247 N Lake Dr	open
Garrettfountain Garrettfountain	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	1216 S Lake Dr	open
Giovanni's Giovanni's Fairborn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	310 N Lake Dr	open
Giovanni's Pizza of Prestonsburg Giovanni's Fairborn	Buffet	Pizza · Italian	1236 N Lake Dr	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	909 N. Lake Dr.	open
Hillbilly Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	5358 Ky Route 321	open
Hobert's Pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3202 S Lake Dr	open
Honey Bee Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)		119 N Arnold Ave Ste 101	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1252 Ky-80	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	618 North Lake Drive	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6290 KY Route 114	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	429 Village Dr	open
Lizzie B's Bakery Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2010 Ky Route 321	open
Lizzy B's Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Loaded Goat Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	113 S Central Ave	open
Long John Silver's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood	1414 N Lake Dr.	open
Long John Silver's	Quick service		North Mayo Trail	open
Made To Crave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1530 N Lake Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	584 Village Drive	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1178 N Lake Dr	open
MIA Italiano Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	139 Glynnview Plz	open
Music's Pizzeria & More	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	1216 S Lake Dr	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	472 N Lake Dr	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	526 University Dr	open
Peking Chinese Buffet Peking Asian Cuisines	Buffet	Chinese · Asian		open
Pig In A Poke	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	341 University Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	497 University Drive Floyd	open
Pizza Palace Fun Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5459 Ky Route 321	open
Reno's Roadhouse	Bar	Steakhouse · American	30 Colonels Ct	open
Roma Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1488 N Lake Dr	open
Royal Restaurant \| Indian	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	113 S Central Ave	open
Speedy's Dairy Bar	Casual dining · Dessert	American · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	1099 N Lake Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	429 University Dr	open
StoneCrest Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	918 Clubhouse Drive	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1362 N Lake Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	649 N. Lake Drive	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	740 N Lake Dr	open
The Brickhouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	358 S Central Ave	open
The Dancing Dachshund	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	247 N Lake Dr	open
The Scoop Ice Cream LLC	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	243 W Court St	open
Three Sisters Prestonsburg	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	224 S Central Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	748 N. Lake Drive	open
Yamato Prestonsburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Steakhouse · Asian	310 N Lake Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	21	20	8	12	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	24	22	10	12	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	22	21	8	12	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	25	23	9	13	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	23	22	11	11	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	19	18	8	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	22	21	10	11	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	23	22	9	13	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	21	19	8	11	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	19	7	12	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	19	7	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	19	7	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	22	8	14	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	25	25	8	17	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	24	24	10	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	26	25	10	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	23	7	16	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	27	27	8	19	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	28	28	10	18	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	32	32	10	21	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	25	7	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	27	7	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	25	7	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	22	5	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	23	5	16	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	26	8	16	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41653. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
41621	2.8 mi	—
41601	4.0 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.