BMIE Market 42003

McCracken County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	29,672 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±513 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,683 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,991 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$55,791 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,226 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$740 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$167,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,900 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	68.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	61 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 42003
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+24.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+74.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+165.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	63 (range 58–68) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 42003. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.3	62	40%	+24.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.5	55	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	69.4	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	29,672	89	40%	+35.5
Median household income (ACS)	55,791	23	40%	+9.1
Households (ACS)	11,711	89	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	24.5	67	35%	+23.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.6	36	25%	+9.0
Population (ACS)	29,672	89	20%	+17.7
Median household income (ACS)	55,791	23	20%	+4.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10.9	69	50%	+34.3
10-year restaurant growth	24.5	67	30%	+20.0
20-year restaurant growth	74.3	76	20%	+15.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (126)

By cuisine

American 26 · Coffee 15 · Pizza 13 · Sandwiches 11 · Mexican 10 · Burgers 9 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 7 · Asian 6 · BBQ 6 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 6 · Chicken / wings 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Chinese 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Breakfast 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Seafood 2 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 75 · Quick service 33 · Coffee shop 14 · Bakery 10 · Casual dining 9 · Bar 8 · Café 8 · Dessert 8 · Other 4 · Food truck 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amigos Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3225 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1916 Lone Oak Rd	open
Auntie Anne's Pretzel Truck of Paducah KY Auntie Anne's	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Bakery	2500 Wayne Sullivan Dr	open
Back Yard Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2314 Lone Oak Rd	open
Baked by Caryn	Bakery	Bakery	3240 Lone Oak Rd A	open
Bambinos Drive In Pizzas and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	2805 Lone Oak Rd	open
Bb’s Sugar and Spice	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		6135 Benton Rd	open
Big Papa's Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1745 Kentucky Ave	open
Bob's Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	2429 Bridge St	open
Branch Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	713 Kentucky Ave Ste 101	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1515 Lone Oak Road	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3226 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Cancun Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	156 Bleich Rd	open
Cass Sweets 'n Eats	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2841 Lone Oak Rd	open
Charlie Joe's Bar And Grill LLC	Casual dining · Bar	American	5925 Old Hwy 45 S	open
Chin Restaurant Lone Oak Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		156 Bleich Rd Ste 105	open
China Buffet	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2701 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Chong's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2819 Lone Oak Rd	open
Club Infinity Llc	Casual dining · Bar		2650 John L Puryear Dr	open
Coffee Beanery Mercy West Hospital Coffee Beanery	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1530 Lone Oak Rd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3400 Clarks River Rd	open
Dairyette Plus	Quick service	Burgers · American	100 S Friendship Rd	open
Doc Popcorn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		155 Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	3831 Clarks River Rd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	3217 Lone Oak Rd	open
Driftwood Lounge	Bar		3535 Clarks River Rd	open
Driver's Grocery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	816 Clark St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	3199 Jackson St	open
Eddie’s Lil’ Bit of Everything	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2634 Jackson St	open
El Sazon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2602 Jackson St	open
Etcetera Squared	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	118 Marine Way	open
Freight House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	330 S 3rd St	open
Frontier Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3130 Lone Oak Rd	open
Gatti's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3001 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Go Cafe Gờ Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	6000 Old US Hwy 45 S	open
Godfather's Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3572 Lone Oak Rd	open
Godfather's Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5750 Benton Rd	open
Guadalajara Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3125 Lone Oak Rd	open
Gulf Coast Connection Paducah Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3250 Lone Oak Rd	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3024 Lone Oak Rd	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3700 Clarks River Rd	open
Harned's Drive In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	4421 Clarks River Rd	open
Hokkaido Grill & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	156 Bleich Rd	open
Holman House Cafeteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3333 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
House of Grace Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2620 Jackson St	open
Jenny's Paradise Snow	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3101 Lone Oak Rd	open
Just Hamburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	2532 Jackson St	open
Kenku Korner Coffee Shop	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	6900 Reidland Rd.	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2800 Lone Oak Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2725 Jackson Street	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2921 Irvin Cobb Drive	open
Kountry Kastle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3415 Clarks River Rd	open
Little Town Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3837 Clarks River Rd	open
Lone Oak Little Castle	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	3460 Lone Oak Rd	open
Lone Oak Road Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2120 & 2130 Lone Oak Rd.	open
Loopy Larry's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3160 Parisa Dr Ste D	open
Los Amigo's Mexican Restaurant Los Amigos of Lone Oak Road	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2817 Lone Oak Rd	open
Los Amigos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3225 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
M L C's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3424 Wayne Sullivan Dr	open
Manchikanti Restaurant Management, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2831 Lone Oak Rd	open
Manea Vineyards & Event Center	Winery / distillery / taproom		2245 Lebanon Church Rd	open
Maria's Authentic Street Tacos Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2516 Bridge St	open
Mel's Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	409 Bleich Rd	open
Meredith Family Grind	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3933 Clarks River Rd	open
Mi Lindo Michoacán Mexican Restaurant Mi Lindo Michoacan Rialto	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Seafood	3001 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Michael's New York Style Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	901 Kentucky Ave	open
Mlc Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7052 Benton Rd	open
MLC's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3333 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Mooknjac brew project	Brewery / taproom		431 S 3rd St	open
Munal's Donut Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1703 Bridge St	open
New Asia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian · American	2540 Lone Oak Rd	open
New China	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3216 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Number 1 Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2927 Lone Oak Rd	open
Paducah Willow Pond	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3009 Old Husbands Rd	open
Paleteria Mi Lindo Michoacan	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3017 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2927 Lone Oak Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3709 Clarks River Rd	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3215 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Pipers Lab	Coffee shop	Coffee	701B Washington St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3230 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Ponderosa Steakhouse, Paducah	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	7052 Benton Rd	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3512 Clarks River Rd.	open
Purple Toad Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		4275 Old US Hwy 45 S	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	3216 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Railside Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	2500 Wayne Sullivan Dr	open
Red's Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	2149 Bridge St	open
Red's Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2800 Jackson St	open
Rocket Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1745 Kentucky Ave Ste C	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2120 & 2130 Lone Oak Rd.	open
Show-Me's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3009 Old Husbands Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2070 Lone Oak Road	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	3260 Irving Cobb Drive	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1530 Lone Oak Rd	open
Starnes BBQ Wholesale	Quick service	BBQ	3550 Starnes Ave	open
Steak Out Charbroiled Delivery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3160 Parisa Dr	open
Still Smokin BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ	406 Ward St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2405 Lone Oak Rd # A	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	7050 Benton Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	516 Lone Oak Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3450 Clark River Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3220 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1525 Lone Oak Road	open
Taco John's Taco John's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2201 Bridge St	open
Taco John's Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2090 Lone Oak Rd	open
Taco John's Taco John's	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2956 Jackson St	open
Tangoor	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		2516 Bridge St	open
Thai@US	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	3592 Lone Oak Rd	open
The Double Deuce	Casual dining · Bar		3401 Clarks River Rd, Paducah, KY 42003-0507, United States	open
The Latte Barn Llc	Coffee shop	Coffee	5524 Reidland Rd	open
The Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	3033 Lone Oak Rd	open
The Thunderbolt Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		954 Husbands Rd	open
Tj's Of Jackson, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2956 Jackson St	open
TLC Bar B Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1020 S 21st St	open
Trader's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Café	American · Coffee	6900 Benton Rd	open
Tyrone’s Home Bar	Bar		3661 Husbands Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2100 Lone Oak Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3522 Clarks River Rd	open
Walmart Deli	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	3216 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3301 Lone Oak Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3150 Irvin Cobb Dr	open
Wing Zone - Best wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2805 Lone Oak Rd	open
XMan's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	1535 Broad St	open
“Reidland Chong's Restaurant Reidland location only	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6345 Kentucky Dam Rd	open
Atomic Designs And Apparel	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2501 Jackson St	closed
Doughty & Allard Llc Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	516 Lone Oak Rd	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1530 Lone Oak Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	23	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	33	27	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	36	31	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	38	34	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	42	36	18	15	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	43	36	18	16	2	5	NAICS1997
2000	39	34	18	14	2	3	NAICS1997
2001	38	32	15	15	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	45	35	19	15	1	5	NAICS1997
2003	45	35	18	16	—	6	NAICS2002
2004	50	38	15	21	1	9	NAICS2002
2005	48	37	14	20	2	8	NAICS2002
2006	48	37	14	21	—	7	NAICS2002
2007	50	36	15	19	1	10	NAICS2002
2008	51	39	21	16	1	8	NAICS2007
2009	50	39	17	20	1	7	NAICS2007
2010	54	40	17	20	1	8	NAICS2007
2011	58	46	21	19	4	7	NAICS2007
2012	66	54	24	23	5	7	NAICS2012
2013	61	49	22	20	5	7	NAICS2012
2014	62	53	25	21	5	4	NAICS2012
2015	62	53	24	24	4	5	NAICS2012
2016	59	51	22	24	4	3	NAICS2012
2017	66	57	23	30	3	4	NAICS2017
2018	62	55	20	30	4	3	NAICS2017
2019	61	55	18	31	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	57	52	19	28	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	58	54	17	31	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	63	58	17	33	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	64	61	19	35	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 42003. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.