BMIE Market 42103

Warren County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,911 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,720 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,944 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±596 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,936 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,153 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,689 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,335 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,184 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±84 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$331,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,534 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	70.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 42103
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+21.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+142.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 18–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.86) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 42103. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.86, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.7	79	40%	+31.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.9	82	35%	+28.7
Market Momentum Score	80.5	81	25%	+20.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,911	83	40%	+33.2
Median household income (ACS)	87,689	71	40%	+28.4
Households (ACS)	9,944	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	70	88	35%	+30.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.8	81	25%	+20.3
Population (ACS)	21,911	83	20%	+16.6
Median household income (ACS)	87,689	71	20%	+14.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	21.4	78	50%	+39.2
10-year restaurant growth	70	88	30%	+26.4
20-year restaurant growth	70	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 6 · Mexican 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 6 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · African 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Quick service 10 · Coffee shop 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1025 Fairview Ave	open
BLU Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		494 Hub Blvd	open
Bluegrass Specialty Foods, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Vanderbilt Ct	open
Boca Tacos & Tequila	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2549 Mt Victor Ln	open
Burger and Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1131 Fairview Ave	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service	Seafood · American	2634 Scottsville Road	open
Catfish House BG	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	300 Cumberland Trace Rd	open
Chuy's Chuy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	3260 Ken Bale Blvd	open
Coffee & Eggs	Coffee shop	Coffee	2549 Mount Victor Ln # 1	open
Doug's Motor City Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	191 Cumberland Trace Rd	open
El Mazatlan El Mazatlan Mexican Restaurant & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	300 Cumberland Trace Rd	open
El Mazatlan El Mazatlan Mexican Restaurant & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	600 US-31W	open
Godfathers Poker Lounge And Tiki Bar	Bar · Casual dining		228 Kendale St	open
Griffs Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1640 Scottsville Rd	open
Grill Candy Rib Company	Quick service	American · BBQ	151 Vanderbilt Ct	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	127 Cumberland Trace Rd	open
Hartland Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	1021 Wilkinson Trace	open
Honey Baked Ham The Honey Baked Ham Company	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1051 Bryant Way Suite 1	open
Just Love Coffee Cafe Just Love Coffee Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	1640 Scottsville Rd #400	open
Kennedy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	2508 Scottsville Rd	open
Ladybugs Fritters and Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		2423 Bristow Rd	open
Local Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	430 U.S. 31 W Bypass #105	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	612 31 W Byp	open
Moe's Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1056 Lovers Ln	open
Panda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	330 U.S. 31 W Bypass	open
PENNYROYAL Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	2459 Mount Victor Ln	open
Purple Toad Winery and Distillery Bowling Green	Winery / distillery / taproom		6245 Cemetery Rd	open
Rogers Artisan Co.	Bakery	Bakery	977 Greathouse Rd	open
Sbarro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1056 Lovers Ln	open
Shake Rag Reed	Quick service · Catering		1049 E 11th Ave	open
Slim Chickens Slim Chickens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · American	1851 Scottsville Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	1010 Wilkinson Trce	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2560 Mt Victor Ln	open
T.a.r., Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Vanderbilt Ct	open
Tamburrino pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2800 Scottsville Rd #160	open
Tan Tan's Home Cooking & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	105 Old Porter Pike	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	3353 Nell O'Bryan Ct	open
The Bistro – Eat. Drink. Connect	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1010 Wilkinson Trce	open
Tony's of Bowling Green	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	556 Hub Blvd b	open
Tuckasee Management & Development, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Vanderbilt Ct	open
Zaxby's Zaxby's	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	100 Cherry Farm Ln	open
Zing Restaurant LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southeast Asian (other) · Asian	1051 Bryant Way	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	11	4	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	14	3	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	17	4	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 42103. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
42159	4.7 mi	1	2005

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.