BMIE Market 42171

Warren County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,723 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±777 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,631 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±308 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,841 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,863 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,191 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,755 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,008 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±176 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$187,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,252 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	103.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 42171
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 8–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 42171. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.9	58	40%	+23.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.8	69	35%	+24.1
Market Momentum Score	84.8	85	25%	+21.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,723	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	70,191	47	40%	+18.9
Households (ACS)	2,631	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	6,723	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	70,191	47	20%	+9.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 5 · Burgers 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bar 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Balance Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		3558 Will Bohannon Rd	open
Bluegrass Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		5016 Smiths Grove- Scottsville Rd	open
Carvel Express Carvel Ice Cream	Specialty food shop · Dessert · Quick service	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	619 S Main St	open
Cinco De Mayo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	149 S Main St	open
Flavor Isle	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	103 N Main St	open
Gone Country	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · American	247 Sulphur Rd	open
Grammie’s Home Cookin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	117 S Main St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	624 S Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1990 Chalybeate Rd	open
Mama Helen Hometown Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		149 S Main St	open
Mayos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		149 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	625 S Main St	open
Porky Pig Diner	Casual dining	American	125 Park Boundary Rd	open
Spring Hill Farmhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2293 Chalybeate Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	624 S Main St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	605 S Main St	open
The Local Lemon	Food truck			open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	575 S Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 42171. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
42163	3.7 mi	—
42159	5.0 mi	1	2005

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.