BMIE Market 42261

Butler County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,641 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±493 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,577 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±205 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,602 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,793 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$52,953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,754 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$648 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$112,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,041 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	287.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 42261
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+83.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 42261. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	49.5	49	40%	+19.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.4	53	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	45	45	25%	+11.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,641	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	52,953	19	40%	+7.5
Households (ACS)	3,577	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.4	67	25%	+16.7
Population (ACS)	9,641	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	52,953	19	20%	+3.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	10	40	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 7 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 4 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Buffet 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ashley's Bakehouse	Bakery	Bakery	308 Lumbustown Rd	open
China Buffet	Buffet		111 Ashley Plaza Cir	open
China One Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Chinese · Asian	811 S Main St	open
ConCon's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9515 Bowling Green Rd	open
Diaz Ranchito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	219 Veterans Way	open
El Azteca Mexican Restaurant Azteca Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	216 S Main St	open
El Rodeo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	227 S Main St	open
Farm Boy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	635 W G L Smith St	open
Firehouse Pizza Firehouse Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	107 E Ohio St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	127 Veterans Way	open
HeBrews 12 Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	110 S Main St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	40 Caneyville Road	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5740 Caneyville Rd	open
Kd Asian Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	286 W G L Smith St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	841 Caneyville Rd	open
Kuntry Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	827 W G L Smith St	open
McCoys Tavern	Bar		416 Russellville Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1174 S Main Street	open
Mi Garcia's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	41 Veterans Way	open
My Mother's Daughter Cheesecakes	Dessert · Café · Bakery	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	119 W G L Smith St	open
Pizza Zone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	618 W G L Smith St	open
Pizza Zone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	110 Ashley Plaza Cir	open
Sabor De Fe Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	201 W Ohio St	open
Snow Shack	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert		open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	615 S Main Street	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	811 South Main Street	open
The Canteen	Bar		573 Veterans Way	open
The Ole Vault	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches · Burgers		open
The Pasta House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	219 Veterans Way	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 42261. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.