BMIE Market 42539

Casey County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,249 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±710 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,834 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,026 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,635 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$40,862 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,203 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$674 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±66 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$130,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,859 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	219.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 42539
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-8.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 42539. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.6	45	40%	+17.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.7	44	35%	+15.3
Market Momentum Score	26.1	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,249	70	40%	+27.9
Median household income (ACS)	40,862	7	40%	+2.6
Households (ACS)	3,834	70	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	9,249	70	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	40,862	7	20%	+1.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 9 · Café 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bar 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aloy Mak Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	17 Hustonville St	open
Annie's Sweets & Gifts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	130 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
El Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	261 Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Emma's Cafe	Café	Coffee	636 Campbellsville Road	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	815 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Honeysuckle Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	6 Hustonville St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5838 KY 49	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	163 Hustonville Street	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6283 US 127	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5200 N US 127	open
Joey's BBQ"	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ	1342 Griffith Ridge Rd	open
Jonathan Fork	Bar			open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	7625 W KY 70	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	410 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Liberty Bell Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	156 Hustonville St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	122 Liberty Square	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	735 Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	543 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd Casey	open
Rey Azteca Mexican Restaurant Grill Azteca Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	535 Middleburg St	open
Seven Sisters	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	483 S Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	116 Liberty Sq	open
Sweet Beans N Things at Dia Bella Studio	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	314 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	705 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
The 49'er Dairy Dee	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers · American	1705 KY 49 Liberty, KY 42539	open
The Grind Stone	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Hot dogs	12 Hustonville St	open
Village Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	115 N Wallace Wilkinson Blvd	open
Whippoorwill Acres	Casual dining	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Breakfast	Liberty	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	4	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	3	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	2	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	5	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 42539. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.