BMIE Market 42653

McCreary County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±741 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,287 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±246 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,619 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,017 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$42,656 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,637 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$645 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±453 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$109,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,902 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	81.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 42653
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+120.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 42653. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	37.1	37	40%	+14.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.2	46	35%	+16.2
Market Momentum Score	50.0	50	25%	+12.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,300	58	40%	+23.2
Median household income (ACS)	42,656	8	40%	+3.2
Households (ACS)	1,287	54	20%	+10.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	35%	+26.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	25.6	26	25%	+6.4
Population (ACS)	4,300	58	20%	+11.6
Median household income (ACS)	42,656	8	20%	+1.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	30%	+22.8
20-year restaurant growth	120	86	20%	+17.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · American 5 · Coffee 3 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Vegetarian 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 7 · Café 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
ACE & Co. Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	4 N Highway 27	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1376 North Hwy 27	open
Bradley's Gourmet Coffee & More	Café	Coffee	363 N Highway 27	open
Bradley's Gourmet Coffee & More	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	980 N Highway 27	open
Burger Hut	Quick service	Burgers · American	740 N Highway 27	open
Creekmore’s Eats and Sweets	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	995 N Highway 27	open
Dairy Bar	Casual dining · Dessert	American · Ice cream / frozen desserts	198 Main St	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4 S Highway 27 Unit 3	open
Huddle House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1125 U S 27	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	211 Us Highway 27	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1280 US-27	open
Kristina's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	18 S Main St	open
Kristina’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	18 S Main St	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	55 Oaks Ln	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	55 Oaks Lane	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1241 US-27	open
Megan’s Baking Company	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	740 US-27	open
Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1128 N Highway 27	open
Santa Fe Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Spanish / tapas	57 Oaks Ln	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	578 Oak Lane, Suite 1	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1155 N Hwy 27	open
Cruz Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	26 W Highway 700 # 700	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	1	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	2	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	13	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 42653. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
42631	3.2 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.