BMIE Market 43430

Ottawa County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,911 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,964 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±252 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,783 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,996 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,807 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,586 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$929 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$156,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,010 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43430
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43430. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.5	57	40%	+23.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38.2	38	35%	+13.4
Market Momentum Score	14.7	15	25%	+3.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,911	60	40%	+24.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,807	53	40%	+21.3
Households (ACS)	1,964	61	20%	+12.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.3	42	25%	+10.4
Population (ACS)	4,911	60	20%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,807	53	20%	+10.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	-10	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Mexican 4 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 7 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Carlos Que Pasa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Vegetarian · Mexican	22060 W State Route 51	open
Cocina de Carlos Genoa Cocina de Carlos at Smedlap's Smithy -Waterville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	22060 OH-51	open
Ernesto's Restaurant - Genoa, OH	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	20825 OH-51 W	open
Genoa Big Dipper	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Chinese	601 Washington St	open
Gloria Jean's Coffees Gloria Jean's Coffees Cambodia	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6410 County Rd 165	open
Hangar 54 Pizza Hangar 54 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Pizza · Chicken / wings · American	22210 OH-51	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Burgers · American	6410 County Rd 165	open
Hardee’s	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6164 County Road 165	open
Hong Kong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	22361 1/2 W Holt Harrigan Rd	open
Izach Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		608 Main St	open
Laurelea's Pastries & Café	Café	Coffee	624 Main St	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6410 County Rd 165	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Quick service		Mile Marker 769 W bound Interstate 80/90	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	22061 State Route 51 W	open
Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6410 County Road 165	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	22201 Woodville Rd	open
Ohio Turnpike Service Plaza. Toledo, Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
R Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	638 Main St	open
Rayz Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	608 Main St	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	6164 Country Road 165	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	6410 County Road 165	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	22049 W State Rt 51	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	22251 State Route 51 W	open
The Bharmacy	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	621 Main St	open
The Matt Cave	Bar		25975 Bradner Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43430. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43408	3.4 mi	1	2006
43445	4.1 mi	1	2012
43447	4.2 mi	3	2017
43469	4.4 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.