BMIE Market 43566

Lucas County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,604 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,460 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,613 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,035 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,985 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,553 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±97 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$305,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,370 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43566
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43566. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.0	75	40%	+30.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.1	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	63.3	63	25%	+15.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,604	69	40%	+27.4
Median household income (ACS)	105,985	85	40%	+33.8
Households (ACS)	3,460	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.6	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	8,604	69	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	105,985	85	20%	+16.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · American 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anthony Wayne Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	40 N 3rd St	open
Big Jack's Lounge	Bar		20 N 3rd St	open
Biggby Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1075 Pray Blvd	open
Buffalo Rock Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		345 Anthony Wayne Trl	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1314 Michigan Ave	open
Chowders and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	312 South St	open
Cocina de Carlos Cocina de Carlos at Smedlap's Smithy -Waterville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	205 Farnsworth Rd	open
Coffee Gallery	Coffee shop	Coffee	22 N 3rd St	open
Dale's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	34 N 3rd St	open
Farnsworth Cocktail & Oyster Bar - Waterville, OH	Bar	Seafood	219 Farnsworth Rd	open
Julia's Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7024 Shadowridge Dr	open
La Banda Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1101 Pray Blvd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1316 Michigan Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7228 Dutch Rd	open
Mdcsw Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105 S 3rd St	open
Pisanello's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	57 S 3rd St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1081 Pray Blvd	open
Shawn's Irish Tavern Shawn's Irish Tavern - Toledo	Bar	British / Irish pub food	105 S 3rd St	open
Slow Rows Barbecue	Food truck	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
Speedy Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8645 Waterville Swanton Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8730 Waterville Swanton Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	24 N 3rd St	open
Sweet Retreat	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1276 Michigan Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6521 Hutchinson Dr	open
Tano's Pizza Tano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	749 Michigan Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	13	5	7	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	13	4	8	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	3	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	3	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	3	7	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	6	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	7	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	6	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	5	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	14	5	6	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	6	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	5	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	16	6	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	18	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	5	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43566. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43525	3.3 mi	3	2020
43571	3.4 mi	11	2023
43565	5.0 mi	1	2008

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.