BMIE Market 43616
Lucas County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 20,309 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 8,281 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±314 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 20,873 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 8,990 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $81,829 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,031 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $901 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $204,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,996 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 38.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 53 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43616 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 24.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +8.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +12.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +23.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +26.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 51 (range 47–55) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43616. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 74.8 | 75 | 40% | +29.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55.3 | 55 | 35% | +19.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 59.2 | 59 | 25% | +14.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 20,309 | 82 | 40% | +32.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 81,829 | 64 | 40% | +25.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 8,281 | 82 | 20% | +16.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 12.8 | 57 | 35% | +19.8 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 26.1 | 25 | 25% | +6.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 20,309 | 82 | 20% | +16.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 81,829 | 64 | 20% | +12.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 8.2 | 65 | 50% | +32.6 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 12.8 | 57 | 30% | +17.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 23.3 | 48 | 20% | +9.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (108)
By cuisine
American 29 · Coffee 12 · Pizza 12 · Sandwiches 11 · Burgers 8 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Breakfast 5 · Chinese 5 · Italian 5 · Mexican 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · BBQ 4 · Dessert 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sushi 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 57 · Quick service 30 · Bar 15 · Casual dining 12 · Café 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 5 · Specialty food shop 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Other 2 · Buffet 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Brew Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2665 Navarre Ave | open |
| American Table | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 846 S Wheeling St | open |
| Applebee's Applebee's Brasil | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2223 Woodville Rd | open |
| Arby's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2647 Navarre Ave | open |
| Arturos Pizza Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3066 Pickle Rd | open |
| Bambino's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3150 Navarre Ave # 3310 | open |
| Big Apple Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 2118 Woodville Rd | open |
| Big Boy Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Breakfast · American · Burgers | 2924 Navarre Ave | open |
| Biggby Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2963 Navarre Ave | open |
| Black Forest Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | German / Eastern European | 3624 Seaman Road | open |
| Bob Evans Bob Evans | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Breakfast | 2849 Navarre Ave | open |
| Briskets | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast | 2474 Navarre Ave | open |
| Buffalo Rock Brewing Company - Bayside | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 5002 Seaman Rd | open | |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining | American · BBQ | 3555 Navarre Avenue | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2966 Navarre Avenue | open |
| China One Buffet | Buffet | Chinese · Asian | 3040 Navarre Ave | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 2924 Navarre Ave | open |
| Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 5 S. Reynolds Road | open |
| Cinco De mayo Azteca Mexican Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3111 Navarre Ave | open |
| Cold Stone Creamery Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee | 2621 Navarre Ave | open |
| Country Mud Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 8305B Arquette Rd | open | |
| Cousino's Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Seafood · American | 1842 Woodville Rd | open |
| Culver's Culver's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2866 Navarre Ave | open |
| Curtice Hy flash | Casual dining · Bar | 7401 Jerusalem Rd | open | |
| Dairy Depot | Dessert · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 3708 Navarre Ave | open |
| Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 3675 Navarre Ave | open |
| Deet's BBQ Deet's BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 2963 Navarre Ave | open |
| Derek’s Home Bar | Bar | 3025 Navarre Ave | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 406 South Wheeling St | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee · Breakfast | 2474 Navarre Ave | open |
| Eagles Nest Sweet Retreat | Coffee shop | Coffee | 16 S Stadium Rd | open |
| Edie's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 2349 Woodville Rd | open |
| Empire Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 2502 Navarre Ave | open |
| Fast & Fresh Pizza Express, On The Go Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 7410 Jerusalem Rd | open |
| Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 3246 Navarre Ave | open |
| Freight House Coffee Co. - Oregon, OH | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 16 S Stadium Rd | open |
| Grape Leaf Express Oregon Grape Leaf Express - Toledo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Greek | 3555 Navarre Ave | open |
| Gustos Italian Restaurant | Quick service | Italian · American | 3220 Navarre Ave | open |
| Haas Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2306 Starr Ave | open |
| Honey Baked Ham Seasonal Store | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 3058 Navarre Ave | open |
| J's Arcade | Café | Coffee | 2175 Woodville Rd | open |
| Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service | 3357 Navarre Ave | open | |
| Johlin Century Winery | Bar | 3935 Corduroy Rd | open | |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 2224 Woodville Road | open |
| L&R Bar North | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | 46 S Berlin Ave | open | |
| La Fiesta Oregon La Fiesta Toledo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2072 Woodville Rd | open |
| Leila's Heavenly Bites | Bakery | Bakery | 1311 S Wynn Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2535 Starr Ave | open |
| Long John Silver's | Quick service | 2412 Woodville Rd | open | |
| Luckie's Barn & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | American | 3310 Navarre Ave | open |
| Lucky East | Café | 3165 Navarre Ave | open | |
| Mancino's Pizza & Grinders | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2325 Woodville Rd | open |
| Mano Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1949 Woodville Rd | open | |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2036 Woodville Rd | open |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2607 Starr Ave | open |
| Margarita Bar Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 1705 S Wheeling St | open |
| Marie Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast | 846 S Wheeling St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2908 Navarre Ave | open |
| Mediterranean Locale | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 2963 Navarre Ave | open |
| Mexico Lindo Restaurant and Cantina | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 3150 Navarre Ave | open |
| Ming Moon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3245 Navarre Ave | open |
| Moonshine Flats Bar and Bistro | Bar | American · BBQ | 3150 Navarre Ave | open |
| MrBeast Burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 3555 Navarre Ave | open |
| Noble Roman's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3150 Navarre Ave | open |
| O.K. Wok | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 3165 Navarre Ave | open |
| Osaka Sushi & Hibachi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 3150 Navarre Ave | open |
| Paddy Joe's | Casual dining · Bar | 1705 S Wheeling St | open | |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 2963 Navarre Ave | open |
| Pearson's Too | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 3219 Seaman Rd | open |
| Penn Station East Coast Subs Penn Station East Coast Subs | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2963 Navarre Ave | open |
| Pete's Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2529 Starr Ave | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 3165 Navarre Ave Lucas | open |
| Ponderosa Steak House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 2080 Woodville Rd | open |
| Port of Toledo | Bar | open | ||
| Qdoba Qdoba | Quick service | 2830 Navarre Ave | open | |
| Rally's Checkers and Rally's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1927 Woodville Rd | open |
| Ralphie's Sports Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3005 Navarre Ave | open |
| Red Eye Pie and Frozen Fantasy's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3219 Seaman Rd | open |
| Salad Galley | Specialty food shop · Fast casual · Quick service | Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 3023 Navarre Ave | open |
| Shawarmaholic | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3555 Navarre Ave | open |
| Smokey's BBQ Roadhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 2092 Woodville Rd | open |
| Soap City Car Wash | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2745 Navarre Ave | open | |
| Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2925 Navarre Avenue | open |
| Sonny Berrys Bayshore supper club inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Seafood | 5307 Bay Shore Rd | open |
| St. Charles Cafe | Café | Coffee | open | |
| Star Diner III Star Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2524 Navarre Ave | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 2830 Navarre Ave, Suite 1 | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 3301 Navarre Ave | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 7410 Jerusalem Rd | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 3721 Navarre Ave | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 3107 Navarre Ave | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 2950 Navarre Avenue | open |
| Taco Bell | Quick service | 2349 Woodville Rd | open | |
| The Blend Oregon | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 406 S Wheeling St | open |
| The Daiquiri Shack | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1705 S Wheeling Rd | open | |
| The Den At Corduroy Carryout | Casual dining · Bar | 5781 Corduroy Rd | open | |
| The Jade Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · American | 2233 Woodville Rd | open |
| The Oregon Inn - Oregon, OH | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 6067 Bay Shore Rd | open |
| Tics Business Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3310 Navarre Ave | open | |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 2959 Navarre Ave | open |
| Veler's Corner Store & Tavern | Casual dining · Bar | 1202 N Stadium Rd | open | |
| Vito's Pizza and Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian | 4035 Navarre Ave | open |
| Walmart Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 3721 Navarre Ave | open |
| Water's Edge Restaurant - Oregon, OH | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 1750 Park Rd 2 | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2907 Navarre Ave | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 2951 Navarre Ave | open |
| Woodville Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · American | 1949 Woodville Rd | open |
| El Camino Properties | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2072 Woodville Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 48 | 42 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 43 | 37 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 41 | 36 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 47 | 44 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 50 | 43 | 16 | 26 | 1 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 48 | 44 | 17 | 26 | 1 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 41 | 39 | 16 | 22 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 48 | 44 | 17 | 26 | 1 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 45 | 40 | 17 | 21 | 2 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 47 | 43 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 45 | 40 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 48 | 43 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 53 | 49 | 18 | 27 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 53 | 49 | 19 | 28 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 51 | 48 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 54 | 53 | 22 | 27 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 53 | 51 | 21 | 26 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 50 | 48 | 19 | 25 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 53 | 51 | 22 | 26 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 51 | 47 | 19 | 24 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 56 | 51 | 24 | 23 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 51 | 49 | 23 | 23 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 51 | 49 | 21 | 25 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 50 | 47 | 18 | 26 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 54 | 49 | 20 | 26 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 53 | 48 | 18 | 27 | 3 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 50 | 47 | 17 | 26 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 52 | 49 | 15 | 28 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 54 | 51 | 16 | 28 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 57 | 53 | 16 | 30 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |