BMIE Market 43953

Jefferson County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,274 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±633 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,043 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±334 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,553 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,380 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,107 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,595 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$899 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$149,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,924 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43953
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+4.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+46.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 15–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43953. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.4	65	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.2	52	35%	+18.3
Market Momentum Score	70.6	71	25%	+17.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,274	73	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	74,107	54	40%	+21.5
Households (ACS)	5,043	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	4.8	50	35%	+17.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.5	38	25%	+9.6
Population (ACS)	11,274	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	74,107	54	20%	+10.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	37.5	87	50%	+43.4
10-year restaurant growth	4.8	50	30%	+14.9
20-year restaurant growth	46.7	61	20%	+12.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	226 Main St	open
Bells Pizza & Calzones	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	41 Reichart Ave	open
Bow Wow Bakery & Boutique	Bakery	Bakery	403 Canton Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	876 Main Street	open
Cheryl's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1105 Cadiz Rd	open
Clear Creek Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	607 Main St	open
DeFelice Brothers Pizza DeFelice Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	497 Cadiz Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	101 Canton Rd	open
Ice Cream Island Parlor LLC	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1063 Canton Rd	open
J & J's Bar	Bar		177 Canton Rd	open
Lock-n-Load Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	419a Cadiz Rd	open
Lucky Larry's	Casual dining · Bar		985 Bantam Ridge Rd	open
Main Strett Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	299 Cadiz Rd	open
Murrays Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		498 Cadiz Rd	open
Pastaio Cucina Rustica Italiana The Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	725 Main St	open
Phat Matty's	Food truck		Goodwill, 103 Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	160 Main St #22	open
Ray's Pizza Ray's Pizza Scottsdale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	754 Main St	open
Steve's Fish And Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	497 Cadiz Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	154 Main St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	180 Main Street	open
The Gaslite	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse · Sandwiches	820 Canton Rd	open
Valley Wine Cellar Inc	Bar		825 Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	100 Main St	open
Zalenski's Family Eatery & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	547 Cadiz Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	18	13	7	4	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	18	12	7	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	16	11	7	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	19	13	7	5	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	18	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	20	15	9	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	20	14	8	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	22	16	9	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	21	15	8	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	25	20	11	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	24	19	9	10	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	23	18	8	10	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	20	15	6	9	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	20	15	6	8	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	24	19	8	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	27	21	9	11	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	22	17	5	11	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	22	16	4	10	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	20	15	3	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	20	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	17	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	19	5	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	20	6	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	22	7	12	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43953. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43938	4.0 mi	3	2019
43952	4.4 mi	44	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.