BMIE Market 44010

Ashtabula County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	544 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±134 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,667 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	702 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,455 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,055 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$902 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$223,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,587 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44010
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	36.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 1–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44010. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.7	49	40%	+19.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.1	43	35%	+15.1
Market Momentum Score	66.9	67	25%	+16.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,554	40	40%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	80,455	63	40%	+25.1
Households (ACS)	544	38	20%	+7.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	51.5	9	25%	+2.3
Population (ACS)	1,554	40	20%	+8.0
Median household income (ACS)	80,455	63	20%	+12.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	60	92	50%	+46.2
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Breakfast 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Quick service 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2239 OH-45	open
Capps Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1736 OH-45	open
Clay Street Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2092 OH-45	open
Das Smorgasbord	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1571 OH-45	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2349 Center Road	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2246 State Route 45	open
Marianne's Chocolates & Cheese	Dessert	Dessert	2241 OH-45	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2849 Gh Drive	open
Old Mill Pantry	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2790 Mill St	open
Rosabella Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3951 State Route 307	open
Skippy's Sandwich Shop and Outside Umbrella Grill	Dessert	American · Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2779 State Route 307	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2246 OH-45	open
Surf & Turf kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · European · Sushi · Japanese	1591 OH-45	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2807 Sidley Court	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2349 Center Road	open
The Corner Bar	Bar · Casual dining		1744 OH-45	open
The Estate on Coffee Creek	Specialty food shop · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Café	Coffee · American	1591 State Route 45	open
The Station Drive Thru	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1760 OH-45	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2850 Gh Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	3	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	4	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	8	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44010. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.