BMIE Market 44026

Geauga County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,730 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,116 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,493 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,761 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,809 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$330,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,309 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44026
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+31.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+47.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 22–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.41) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44026. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.41, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.2	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.9	63	35%	+22.0
Market Momentum Score	71.9	72	25%	+18.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,730	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	111,761	87	40%	+35.0
Households (ACS)	4,394	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.3	30	25%	+7.4
Population (ACS)	10,730	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	111,761	87	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	31.6	84	50%	+41.9
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · American 5 · Italian 5 · Mexican 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bar 10 · Café 6 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Heidi Cookie	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	11414 Caves Rd	open
Chesterland Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		8190 Mayfield Rd	open
Cilantro Taqueria - Chesterland Cilantro Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8399 Mayfield Rd	open
Compadres Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8389 Mayfield Rd Unit 8	open
Coppia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8623 Mayfield Rd	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service	Burgers · American	8423 Mayfield Rd	open
Danny Boy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	8389 Mayfield Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	8486 Mayfield Rd	open
Dough-licious	Bakery · Food truck	Bakery	12105 Parker Dr	open
Em-ka Ventures, Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12626 Chillicothe Rd	open
Farmer In The Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	12613 Chillicothe Rd	open
Fig Leaf Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	12628 Chillicothe Rd	open
Georgio's Oven Fresh Pizza Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8399 Mayfield Rd #B	open
Geppetto's Pizza and Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12617 Chillicothe Rd	open
Ginos Strongsville	Bar	Italian · Burgers	8389 Mayfield Rd	open
Guido's Pizza Haven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12809 Chillicothe Rd	open
High Peaks Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	8005 Mayfield Rd	open
Hunan Chester	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12611 Chillicothe Rd	open
La Mexicana Cantina and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	8053 Mayfield Rd	open
Local Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8389 Mayfield Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8329 Mayfield Rd	open
Mike’s Bar 2.0	Bar		13211 Chillicothe Rd	open
Mr Hero	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8490 Mayfield Rd	open
My Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	12646 Chillicothe Rd	open
Neighbor's Sausage & Hot Dog House, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American	12770 Chillicothe Rd	open
Pari Authentic Indian Cuisine	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	12775 Chillicothe Rd	open
Piasano's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8378 Mayfield Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12720 Chillochothe Rd	open
Pulp Juice and Smoothie Bar Pulp Juice and Smoothie Bar - Zanesville	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	8490 Mayfield Rd	open
Purpose Brew Works + Kitchen	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		8737 Mayfield Rd	open
Rise and Dine Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	12769 Chillicothe Rd	open
Silver Skillet Cafe	Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	12650 Chillicothe Rd	open
Spectators Bar and Grille Oak & Embers Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		8003 Mayfield Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	12766 Chillicothe Rd	open
The Coffee Post	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	12626 Chillicothe Rd	open
TJ's ToGo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused		8488 Mayfield Rd	open
Valley Villa Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8200 Mayfield Rd	open
Vampire Vapors	Bar		13436 Chillicothe Rd	open
Versare Cafe and Market	Café	Coffee · Italian · Greek	12777 Chillicothe Rd	open
Very Good Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12720 Chillicothe Rd	open
Victoria's Bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	12725 Woodside Dr	open
Vino_Type	Bar		8389 Mayfield Rd	open
Wah Sun Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12550 Chillicothe Rd	open
Zeppe's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12628 Chillicothe Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	17	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	20	19	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	24	23	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	27	22	10	10	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	28	24	10	12	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	24	20	10	9	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	23	20	9	10	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	21	19	8	9	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	24	20	7	11	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	28	24	6	16	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	29	24	8	15	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	27	22	6	13	3	3	NAICS2002
2007	26	20	9	9	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	26	22	8	11	3	2	NAICS2007
2009	24	20	9	9	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	26	22	10	10	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	25	21	10	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	24	22	10	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	22	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	25	23	12	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	23	21	10	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	25	22	11	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	21	10	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	24	10	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	23	12	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	22	12	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	27	14	9	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	25	10	8	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44026. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44072	3.9 mi	1	2012
44040	4.5 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.