BMIE Market 44039

Lorain County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	36,780 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±107 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,162 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±414 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,563 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,153 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,485 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,004 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,116 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$269,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	46 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44039
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+27.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+109.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+155.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	40 (range 33–47) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44039. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.9	87	40%	+34.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.3	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	75.8	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	36,780	92	40%	+37.0
Median household income (ACS)	96,485	79	40%	+31.4
Households (ACS)	14,162	92	20%	+18.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15	59	35%	+20.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.5	62	25%	+15.6
Population (ACS)	36,780	92	20%	+18.5
Median household income (ACS)	96,485	79	20%	+15.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	27.8	82	50%	+41.1
10-year restaurant growth	15	59	30%	+17.6
20-year restaurant growth	109.1	85	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (84)

By cuisine

Bakery 11 · Pizza 11 · American 10 · Italian 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 6 · Coffee 6 · Mexican 6 · Dessert 5 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Chinese 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Bar 15 · Quick service 14 · Bakery 12 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 6 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Food truck 3 · Other 3 · Fast casual 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
83 & Chestnut Pub and Eatery - North Ridgeville, OH	Casual dining · Bar	American	9001 Avon Belden Rd	open
Aces Grille	Bar		32650 Lorain Rd	open
Afu Square Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		34173 Center Ridge Rd	open
All Fired Up	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	34173 Center Ridge Rd	open
American Legion Post 717	Bar			open
Angelina's Pizza Angelina's Pizza Elyria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	34887 Lorain Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	34011 Center Ridge Rd	open
Avi Foodsystems	Bakery · Specialty food shop	Bakery	4937 Mills Industrial Pkwy	open
Baker Rhea	Bakery	Bakery	36320 Butternut Ridge Rd # RD-8526	open
Biggby Coffee Biggby Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	35065 Center Ridge Road	open
Bistro 83 Bistro 83	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		36033 Westminister Ave	open
Brickyard Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36040 Sugar Ridge Rd	open
Bullfrog's Sports Café	Bar · Casual dining		33137 Center Ridge Rd	open
Buns and Brews Sportsbar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	34445 Center Ridge Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	32533 Lorain Rd	open
C Mulligan's Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	6450 Pitts Blvd	open
Cafe 83 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36033 Westminister Ave	open
Century Tavern	Bar		33312 Center Ridge Rd	open
Chet's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)		32505 Center Ridge Rd	open
China King Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	33125 Center Ridge Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	32223 Lorain Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	34712 Center Ridge Rd	open
City Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	34900 Center Ridge Rd	open
Claudette's Confections	Bakery	Bakery	7376 Timothy Dr	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	32574 Lorain Rd	open
Dairy Grove	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	35455 Center Ridge Rd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	32936 Center Ridge Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	35108 Center Ridge Road	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	32323 Lorain Rd	open
Fattoush Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mediterranean	38790 Center Ridge Rd	open
Fiesta Jalapenos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	33725 Center Ridge Rd	open
Frankie's	Other	Sandwiches	9001 Avon Belden Rd	open
Funky Pooch Gourmet Food Truck	Food truck		5623 Olive Ave	open
Game Day Tavern - North Ridgeville, OH	Bar · Casual dining		39140 Center Ridge Rd	open
Geppettos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	34363 Center Ridge Road	open
Gin Hibachi Private Event 1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	626	open
Gourme Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	32775 Lorain Rd	open
Hop Brothers Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		32650 Lorain Rd	open
Italian Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Italian	34960 Center Ridge Rd	open
Kim's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		37863 Center Ridge Rd	open
Lady Luck	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	33133 Center Ridge Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	35145 Center Ridge Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	35145 Center Ridge Rd.	open
Little Hong Kong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	34137 Center Ridge Rd	open
Lone Tree Tavern	Casual dining · Catering · Bar		33009 Lorain Rd	open
Maing Wok Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	35085 Center Ridge Rd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	32521 Center Ridge Rd	open
Mary's Karaoke & Wine Bar	Bar		6418 Denise Dr	open
Master Pizza Master Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	34263 Center Ridge Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service		39005 Center Ridge Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	32528 Lorain Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	35900 Center Ridge Rd	open
Mootown Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	34259 Center Ridge Rd	open
Mr. Hero	Other	Sandwiches	34258 Center Ridge Rd	open
Mrs. Scott's Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	34161 Center Ridge Rd	open
Nino's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	32652 Center Ridge Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Fast casual	Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	32305 Lorain Road	open
Peddler's Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	9183 Vernon Hl	open
Pickett's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	37863 Center Ridge Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	34210 Center Ridge Rd Lorain	open
Pizza Pan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	33009 Lorain Rd #A	open
Pulp Juice and Smoothie Bar Pulp Juice and Smoothie Bar - Zanesville	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	35423 Center Ridge Rd	open
Reasers Roots	Bakery	Bakery	37925 Butternut Ridge Rd	open
SajWave	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	34910 Center Ridge Rd	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	34522 Center Ridge Rd	open
Simple Sourdough Breads	Bakery	Bakery	6919 Meadow Lakes Blvd	open
Smash Pizza Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7054 Avon Belden Rd	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	34250 Center Ridge Rd	open
Snappys	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	33600 Center Ridge Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	32435 Cook Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	34299 Center Ridge Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	32350 Lorain Road	open
Tacos del Pueblo Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	34173 Center Ridge Rd	open
Tavos Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	33137 Center Ridge Rd	open
The Chestnut Tavern	Bar	American	9001 Avon Belden Rd	open
The Flannel Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5441 Cornell Ave	open
The Goat Tavern	Bar		38302 Overlook Ct	open
The Grateful Dog Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	33101 Center Ridge Rd	open
The Treat Shoppe & Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	35522 Center Ridge Rd	open
Tommy's Pcr	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	34441 Center Ridge Rd	open
Two Harts Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Victory Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7777 Victory Ln	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	34273 Center Ridge Road	open
Zodiac Tavern	Bar		35325 Center Ridge Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	18	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	21	15	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	20	15	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	25	20	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	28	20	9	9	2	5	NAICS1997
1999	25	17	8	9	—	5	NAICS1997
2000	29	20	7	12	1	6	NAICS1997
2001	26	19	7	11	—	5	NAICS1997
2002	26	21	9	12	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	31	22	6	15	1	6	NAICS2002
2004	27	22	7	15	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	27	22	7	15	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	31	26	9	16	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	41	34	9	22	2	3	NAICS2002
2008	41	35	13	19	2	4	NAICS2007
2009	40	39	13	22	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	39	35	11	19	4	4	NAICS2007
2011	43	40	16	18	5	3	NAICS2007
2012	40	35	13	17	4	5	NAICS2012
2013	46	40	18	16	5	6	NAICS2012
2014	41	37	14	16	5	4	NAICS2012
2015	40	35	13	16	5	5	NAICS2012
2016	42	36	11	19	5	4	NAICS2012
2017	39	37	12	20	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	38	36	11	21	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	38	35	11	20	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	36	33	12	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	39	36	12	21	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	43	40	13	23	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	49	46	13	27	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44039. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44011	4.3 mi	64	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.