BMIE Market 44138

Cuyahoga County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,162 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,423 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±445 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,332 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,775 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,603 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,943 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,353 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$252,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,810 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44138
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+110.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+90.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 21–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44138. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.9	82	40%	+32.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.5	73	35%	+25.4
Market Momentum Score	46.7	47	25%	+11.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,162	84	40%	+33.6
Median household income (ACS)	96,603	79	40%	+31.5
Households (ACS)	9,423	84	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.1	76	25%	+19.0
Population (ACS)	23,162	84	20%	+16.8
Median household income (ACS)	96,603	79	20%	+15.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.6	23	50%	+11.6
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	110	85	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 5 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · French 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Bar 14 · Casual dining 7 · Dessert 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Other 3 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ace's Depot	Casual dining · Bar		9535 Columbia Rd	open
Angelina's Pizza Angelina's Pizza Elyria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	27095 Bagley Rd	open
Angelina's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8155 Columbia Rd	open
Arabica Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	8143 Columbia Rd	open
Bistro Du Beaujolais	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	8134 Columbia Rd	open
Casa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	26926 Cook Rd	open
Cle Catering Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26926 Cook Rd	open
Clementines Victorian Restaurant and Bakery	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Tea / bubble tea · Bakery · American	8902 Columbia Rd	open
Dad Future Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		27128 Bagley Rd	open
Falls Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8079 Columbia Rd	open
Falls Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8094 Columbia Rd	open
Fat Little Buddies	Bar	American	26906 Cook Rd	open
Fazio's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8074 Columbia Rd	open
Golden Tee Lounge	Bar		27153 Bagley Rd	open
Grand Pacific Popcorn Company	Dessert	Dessert	8051 Columbia Rd	open
Gunselmans Steakhouse & Bar	Bar	Steakhouse	7928 Main St	open
Gw2 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7062 Columbia Rd	open
Happy Hens Egg Stand	Food truck		26922 Schady Rd	open
Jimmy's Place Upstairs	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · American	8154 Columbia Rd	open
Jojo Carloni's Italian Restaurant & Pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	26926 Cook Rd	open
Kool Berry	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8131 Columbia Rd	open
Lucky Bowl Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	27093 Bagley Rd	open
Matteo's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	8072 Columbia Rd	open
Mi Rancho	Casual dining	Mexican · American	27099 Bagley Rd	open
Moosehead Hoof & Ladder	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	7989 Columbia Rd	open
Mr. Hero Mr Hero Mansfield Ohio	Quick service	Sandwiches · Burgers	26918 Cook Rd	open
Parilya CLE	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		8155 Columbia Rd	open
Prost at Lenau Park	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	German / Eastern European	7370 Columbia Rd	open
Razzles	Casual dining · Bar		27128 Bagley Rd	open
RoaDOG's Basement Bar	Bar		Wheaton Place	open
Roasted Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	27093 Bagley Rd	open
Rolen Bistro & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		24230 Cottage Gate	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	27097 Bagley Rd Unit And	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	7062 Columbia Rd	open
Sunoco Esawy, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9796 Columbia Rd	open
Teresa's Pizza Teresa's Pizza Mantua	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	26926 Cook Rd	open
The Falls Of Olmstead Falls	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
The Little Penguin	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8131 Columbia Rd	open
The Original Steaks and Hoagies The Original Steaks and Hoagies - Medina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	27097 Bagley Rd	open
Trolley House Pub & Grille	Bar	American	7066 Columbia Rd	open
Twin Bean Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	8134 Columbia Rd	open
Uncle Al's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	27093 Bagley Rd	open
Village Bean Cafe	Casual dining		8143 Columbia Rd	open
Vince Brother Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		27093 Bagley Rd	open
Vino di Luca	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7932 Main St	open
Wok of the Falls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8185 Columbia Rd	open
Yalla Shawarma	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	27093 Bagley Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	11	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	14	10	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	18	13	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	19	15	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	20	13	6	5	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	18	10	6	4	—	5	NAICS1997
2000	21	14	8	5	1	4	NAICS1997
2001	18	9	5	4	—	6	NAICS1997
2002	15	10	7	2	1	5	NAICS1997
2003	17	10	6	4	—	6	NAICS2002
2004	17	12	6	5	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	19	14	6	6	2	4	NAICS2002
2006	15	10	6	4	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	13	5	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	18	15	7	8	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	17	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	8	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	9	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	21	18	9	7	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	21	18	8	9	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	19	17	9	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	9	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	20	18	9	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	22	11	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	19	10	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	21	12	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	21	8	10	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	21	8	10	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44138. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44070	2.9 mi	97	2023
44017	3.2 mi	40	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.