BMIE Market 44214

Wayne County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,450 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±416 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	775 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,076 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	786 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,837 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$994 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±188 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$237,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,332 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44214
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-57.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	1 (range 0–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.52) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	3 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44214. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.52, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.5	56	40%	+22.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.8	41	35%	+14.3
Market Momentum Score	2.9	3	25%	+0.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,450	49	40%	+19.4
Median household income (ACS)	84,861	68	40%	+27.1
Households (ACS)	775	45	20%	+9.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	63	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	2,450	49	20%	+9.7
Median household income (ACS)	84,861	68	20%	+13.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 3 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-57.1	1	50%	+0.7
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Quick service 6 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Other 3 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8417 Harley Dr	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	10054 Stelzer Dr	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	10048 Avon Lake Rd	open
Cutlip's Buck n Nuts Bar	Bar		2303 W Steiner Rd	open
Duchess Duke & Duchess Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	10169 Avon Lake Rd	open
East Wok Express Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9911 Avon Lake Rd Unit F60	open
Great Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9909 Avon Lake Rd	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Breakfast · American	10145 Avon Lake Rd	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8471 Harley Dr	open
Marr’s Cafe	Other	Sandwiches	9911 Avon Lake Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10020 Avon Lake Rd	open
Mr. Hero	Other	Sandwiches	9911 Avon Lake Rd	open
Pita Pit	Other	Sandwiches	9911 Avon Lake Rd,	open
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory	Dessert	Dessert	9911 Avon Lake Rd	open
Steam Cafe	Café	Coffee	9911 Avon Lake Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	8535 Willow Rd.	open
Villa Fresh Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9909 Avon Lake Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10048 Avon Lake Rd	open
WOK & ROLL Wok and Roll	Food truck	Chinese · Asian	9911 Avon Lake Rd	open
Yogurt City	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9911 Avon Lake Rd Unit F50	open
P H 413 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	9909 Avon Lake Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44214. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44217	4.5 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.