BMIE Market 44254

Medina County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,880 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,062 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±181 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,833 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,207 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,865 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,761 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$902 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$197,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44254
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+75.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44254. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.4	52	40%	+21.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.1	46	35%	+16.1
Market Momentum Score	27.7	28	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,880	60	40%	+24.0
Median household income (ACS)	65,865	40	40%	+16.1
Households (ACS)	2,062	61	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.8
Population (ACS)	4,880	60	20%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	65,865	40	20%	+8.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 3 · Breakfast 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
701 Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		701 Medina St	open
Acme Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		700 Medina St	open
Brently's	Bar		701 Medina St	open
Cruisers Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	810 Bank St	open
Destynee’s Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	119 Wooster St	open
East Of Chicago	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	715 Bank St	open
East of Chicago Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9220 Chippewa Rd	open
Fat Beagle Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	109 Janice St	open
Great Wall Great Wall Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	122 Ainsworth St	open
Lighthouse Cafe	Casual dining	American	125 Wooster St	open
Moxie's Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	700 Medina St	open
Mr. Hero Mr Hero Mansfield Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · American	741 Bank St	open
Pearlscafe	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Breakfast		open
Romeo's Pizza Romeo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	115 Wooster St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	101 Wooster St	open
Taylor’s Diner	Casual dining	American	125 Wooster St	open
The Bucket List Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7511 Lafayette Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	9	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	4	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	11	7	3	4	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	8	5	3	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44254. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44251	4.6 mi	1	1994

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.