BMIE Market 44654

Holmes County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,381 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,013 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,534 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,679 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,459 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,345 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,521 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$834 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±66 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$297,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,861 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	160.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44654
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+38.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+78.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+92.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 26–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.91) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44654. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.91, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.1	73	40%	+29.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.8	76	35%	+26.5
Market Momentum Score	85.1	85	25%	+21.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,381	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	79,345	61	40%	+24.5
Households (ACS)	6,534	78	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.7	66	25%	+16.4
Population (ACS)	21,381	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	79,345	61	20%	+12.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	38.9	87	50%	+43.6
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	78.6	77	20%	+15.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (54)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 9 · Dessert 8 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Dessert 13 · Quick service 12 · Café 8 · Bakery 7 · Casual dining 7 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amish Country Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	73 W Jackson St	open
Auntie Anne's	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	4550 OH-39	open
Auntie Anne's	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	45500 OH-39	open
Bags Sports Pub	Bar		88 E Jackson St	open
Blue Sky Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	4786 E Main St	open
Broken Grounds Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	214 W Jackson St	open
Carpenter's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	4465 OH-557	open
Chalet In The Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	5060 Ohio 557	open
Charm Pizza Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	4416 OH-557	open
Cheng's Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1647 S Washington St	open
Chimmys Smokehouse Barbecue	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	5201 TR.401	open
Cindy's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Berlin, OH	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	890 S Washington St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	4714 OH-39	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1129 S Washington St	open
Daybreak Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1095 S Washington St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	181 W Jackson St	open
East of Chicago	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	960 S Washington St	open
Guggisberg Doughty Glen Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5025 State Route 557	open
Honey & Fig	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	4450 OH-557	open
Jitters Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1545 S Washington St	open
Kauffman's Country Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	4357 US-62	open
La Palma Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	60 W Jackson St	open
Little Beans Play Cafe	Café	Coffee	5126 W Main St	open
Main Street Fudge & Popcorn Company	Dessert	Dessert	4799 E Main St	open
MawMaw's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Quick service	American	11058 OH-39	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1586 S Washington St	open
McKelvey's Pub	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	196 W Jackson St	open
Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5252 OH-39	open
Miller's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4250 Township Hwy 356	open
Miller's Creamery	Dessert · Specialty food shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts	105 W Jackson St	open
Millersburg Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		60 E Jackson St	open
Millersburg Coffee Company (Roaster & Wholesaler)	Coffee shop	Coffee	4667 Township Hwy 312	open
Nourish and Bloom Farm Stand	Bakery	Bakery	3180 State Route 39	open
Pitmasters Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	42 N Grant St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1681 S Washington St Ste Sr 83 Ste Sr 83	open
Plain & Simple Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4774 US-62	open
Romeo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	987 S Washington St	open
Schloneger's Old Fashioned Ice Cream LLC	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4914 W Main St	open
Splitz Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		39 Logsdon Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	995 S Washington St	open
Table Rock Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4799 E Main St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1532 Washington Street	open
Tarragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European · American	6920 CR-203	open
The Cider Press	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	73 W Jackson St	open
The Crumb Co.	Bakery	Bakery	4932 Parkwood Dr #7	open
The Red Mug Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7789 Co Rd 77	open
Trail Side Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1497 S Washington St	open
Troyer’s Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	4 E Jackson St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1640 S Washington St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1518 S. Washington	open
West Fork Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		170 Parkview Dr	open
Whit's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Dessert		open
Zest Smoothie Bar & Fresh Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5252 State Route 39	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	16	15	3	8	4	1	NAICS1997
1999	17	15	4	8	3	2	NAICS1997
2000	17	15	5	7	3	2	NAICS1997
2001	15	14	5	6	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	9	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	7	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	13	7	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	6	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	15	13	7	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	7	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	8	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	17	6	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	23	19	8	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	18	7	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	19	8	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	20	7	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	20	7	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	23	7	10	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	29	25	8	9	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44654. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44610	4.0 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.