BMIE Market 44677

Wayne County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,734 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±447 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,054 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,543 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,044 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,435 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,950 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$853 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±102 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$230,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,595 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44677
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 3–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	9 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44677. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.6	53	40%	+21.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.4	37	35%	+13.1
Market Momentum Score	9.1	9	25%	+2.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,734	51	40%	+20.2
Median household income (ACS)	75,435	56	40%	+22.3
Households (ACS)	1,054	50	20%	+10.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	35%	+2.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.6	54	25%	+13.5
Population (ACS)	2,734	51	20%	+10.1
Median household income (ACS)	75,435	56	20%	+11.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 9 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-33.3	8	50%	+4.1
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	-20	14	20%	+2.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (11)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Scoops LLC	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	750 E Main St	open
Dari-Land	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	750 E Main St	open
Duchess Duchess Shoppes	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	265 W Main St	open
Sam's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	637 E Main St	open
Smithville Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	109 W Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1046 B Apple Creek Road	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	119-121 East Main Street	open
The Barn Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	877 W Main St	open
The Carpenter's Cup	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	116 W Main St	open
Tuxedo Baking Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4216 E Smithville Western Rd	open
Wooster Holiday Store - feat. Coblentz Chocolate	Restaurant (service type not stated)		879 W Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	—	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	2	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	4	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44677. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44276	4.6 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.