BMIE Market 44688

Stark County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,808 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,067 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±121 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,053 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,290 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$66,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,146 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$920 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$130,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,598 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44688
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	29.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-30.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	32 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	29 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44688. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.1	47	40%	+18.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	28.7	29	35%	+10.0
Market Momentum Score	13.1	13	25%	+3.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,808	51	40%	+20.4
Median household income (ACS)	66,444	41	40%	+16.5
Households (ACS)	1,067	51	20%	+10.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.9	27	25%	+6.7
Population (ACS)	2,808	51	20%	+10.2
Median household income (ACS)	66,444	41	20%	+8.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 3 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 3 · Quick service 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cibo's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	134 W Lisbon St	open
Doug's Dugout	Casual dining · Bar		115 N Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		8664 Waynesburg Dr SE	open
Hooch's Bar	Bar		121 E Lisbon St	open
Italian American Club	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	157 Grant St	open
Italo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8648 Waynesburg Dr SE	open
Jukebox Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	167 N Main St	open
Kirk's Restaurant	Casual dining	American	8430 Ravenna Ave SE	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8720 Waynesburg Dr SE	open
Munch for Lunch	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8759 Waynesburg Dr SE	open
Needfull Things	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7330 Minerva Rd SE	open
Shaeffer's "Fire Pit Lounge"	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7293 Minerva Rd SE	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8648 Waynesburg Dr SE	open
The Shack	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	240 Mill St	open
Tlaquepaque Waynesburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8646 Waynesburg Dr SE	open
Waynesburg Grill Waynesburg University	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	135 E Lisbon St	open
West End Pizza Ii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	130 W Lisbon St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	10	8	4	3	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	6	2	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	12	7	3	3	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	12	9	3	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	4	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	2	2	3	3	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	3	2	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	3	2	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	11	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	3	6	1	3	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	2	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44688. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44644	4.1 mi	5	2023
44643	4.2 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.