BMIE Market 45015

Butler County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,038 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,008 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,914 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±429 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,038 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,260 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$48,312 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,478 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,031 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$120,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45015
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.54) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	5 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.54, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.8	49	40%	+19.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42.6	43	35%	+14.9
Market Momentum Score	5.0	5	25%	+1.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,038	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	48,312	13	40%	+5.1
Households (ACS)	4,914	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.6	96	25%	+24.0
Population (ACS)	11,038	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	48,312	13	20%	+2.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 5 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	50%	+3.3
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	20%	+0.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 4 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Breakfast 2 · African 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 6 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adepa Continental Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · African	2444 Dixie Hwy	open
Anchor & Rose Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	2601 Pleasant Ave	open
Arrow Cafe	Bar		2273 Pleasant Ave	open
Barney's Bar	Bar		2504 Benninghofen Ave	open
Bella Mia Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2528 Pleasant Ave	open
Brandon schmidt McDonald's	Quick service · Delivery-focused		624 Belle Ave	open
Chester's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2929 Dixie Hwy	open
Frisch's Big Boy	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Burgers · American	2949 Dixie Hwy	open
Heaven Sent	Bakery · Coffee shop · Casual dining	Bakery · Coffee · American	2269 Pleasant Ave	open
Hong Kong Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4067 Pleasant Ave	open
Lindenwald Station	Casual dining	American	2535 Pleasant Ave	open
Los Tacos Chilangos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3220A Dixie Hwy	open
Lynns Freedom Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	2535 Pleasant Ave	open
Mcschmidt Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		82 Williams Ave	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2300 Dixie Hwy	open
Power House	Bar		2601 Pleasant Ave	open
Randy Hardin	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	4095 Pleasant Ave	open
Restaurant & Super Market El VALLE VERDE 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2436 Dixie Hwy	open
Richard's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3015 Dixie Hwy	open
Schmidt Qsr Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		82 Williams Ave	open
Shenanigan's Cafe	Café · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	4041 Pleasant Ave	open
Stumps	Bar		681 Clinton Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2308 Dixie Highway Space BC	open
Sweden Creme	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2047 Pleasant Ave	open
Taqueria Los Compadres	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2780 Dixie Hwy	open
The Avenue Tavern and Grille	Casual dining · Bar		4041 Pleasant Ave	open
WingDepo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2949 Dixie Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	10	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	16	9	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1996	15	9	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	16	10	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	15	9	4	5	—	6	NAICS1997
1999	15	9	4	4	—	6	NAICS1997
2000	17	10	5	4	—	7	NAICS1997
2001	18	14	7	5	1	4	NAICS1997
2002	16	13	4	6	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	17	12	4	7	1	5	NAICS2002
2004	14	10	3	6	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	13	10	2	7	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	16	11	3	7	1	5	NAICS2002
2007	13	8	1	6	1	5	NAICS2002
2008	12	8	1	6	1	4	NAICS2007
2009	12	7	2	5	—	5	NAICS2007
2010	12	8	1	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2011	12	7	1	6	—	4	NAICS2007
2012	15	9	3	6	—	5	NAICS2012
2013	13	8	3	5	—	4	NAICS2012
2014	13	8	3	5	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	15	10	3	6	1	4	NAICS2012
2016	12	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	11	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	7	3	3	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45015. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45014	3.4 mi	93	2023
45011	5.0 mi	104	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.