BMIE Market 45304

Darke County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,599 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±502 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±216 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,300 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,037 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,885 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$827 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$190,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,996 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	85.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45304
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-28.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.34) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45304. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.34, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.8	64	40%	+25.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.3	77	35%	+27.1
Market Momentum Score	49.1	49	25%	+12.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,599	67	40%	+26.7
Median household income (ACS)	78,125	60	40%	+23.8
Households (ACS)	2,890	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.6	86	25%	+21.5
Population (ACS)	7,599	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	78,125	60	20%	+11.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 3 · Pizza 3 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A. R. Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		3564 Gordon Landis Rd	open
arcanum vfw 4161	Bar		311 S Albright St	open
Arcanum-Butler School Cafeteria Arcanum Middle School	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Cruizers Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	10 N Main St	open
HOLY DOUGH Farm Stand	Bakery	Bakery	302 N Main St	open
Hustons Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9 Water St	open
Lowell Cheadle Enterprises, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 Water St	open
Miller's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		15 N High St	open
Ozro and Ray's Authentic Homestyle Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	109 W. George Stree	open
Petey's Pizza & Carry Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2494 US-127	open
Picnic's Pizza & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · American	3 E Woodside Dr	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3433 SR 49	open
The Kakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1699 Karr Rd	open
The Old Arcana Eating House & Events	Restaurant (service type not stated)		109 W George St	open
Toni & John’s Route 571 Diner	Casual dining	American · Pizza · Breakfast	9001 State Route 571	open
Troutwine's Tiki Tavern - Triple T	Bar		5 Ivester Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	7	2	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	7	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	6	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	6	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	8	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45304. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45358	2.0 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.