BMIE Market 45309

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,876 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±677 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,648 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±389 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,123 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,241 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,409 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$982 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$214,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,616 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	65.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45309
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+45.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45309. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.2	66	40%	+26.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.3	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	57.9	58	25%	+14.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,876	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	75,409	56	40%	+22.3
Households (ACS)	4,648	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	35%	+17.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.5	58	25%	+14.6
Population (ACS)	11,876	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	75,409	56	20%	+11.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	30%	+15.3
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 9 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 9 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery · American	50 Triggs Rd	open
Brookville Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	428 N Wolf Creek St	open
Candy Break	Dessert		212 Market St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	945 Arlington Road	open
El Bronco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	485 Arlington Rd	open
Gerard J. Swartztrauber Epc And Mackil, Inc. Co-borrower	Restaurant (service type not stated)		705 Arlington Rd	open
Great Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	428 N Wolf Creek St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	801 Arlington Rd	open
Hip-Stirs Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	442 N Wolf Creek St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	25 Triggs Road	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	620 Arlington Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	40 Triggs Rd	open
Mulberry & Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	130 Main St	open
O'Riley's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		10 Market St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	428 N Wolf Creek St	open
Rick and Gail's Carryout	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	61 S State St	open
Rodney & Carrie's Smokehouse Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	BBQ		open
Sarah's Pizza Sarah's Pizza Lewisburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	224 Market St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	428 N Wolf Creek St	open
The Blend Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	Brookside Plaza Shopping Center, Suite M, N Wolf Creek St	open
The Sugar Shoppe Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13080 Providence Pike	open
Tik Takos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	209 Market St	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	780 Arlington Rd	open
Wall St Brewhouse and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	123 Wall St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	510 Upper Lewisburg	open
What's The Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	230 Market St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	17	13	5	5	3	3	NAICS1997
1999	16	14	5	5	4	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	4	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	11	5	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	16	13	6	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	14	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	5	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	15	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	17	14	5	8	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	18	15	7	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	17	14	6	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	6	8	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	18	15	5	9	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	17	14	5	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	18	15	5	9	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	19	16	5	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	5	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	4	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	3	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	3	9	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	3	10	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45309. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45315	4.2 mi	8	2023
45354	4.7 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.