BMIE Market 45377

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,888 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±448 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,446 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,215 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,025 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,398 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,762 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$898 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±63 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$202,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45377
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+4.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-17.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 19–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45377. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.7	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.1	46	35%	+16.1
Market Momentum Score	39.1	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,888	77	40%	+30.6
Median household income (ACS)	77,398	59	40%	+23.4
Households (ACS)	6,446	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	35%	+6.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.1	49	25%	+12.2
Population (ACS)	14,888	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	77,398	59	20%	+11.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	4.4	61	50%	+30.4
10-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	30%	+5.9
20-year restaurant growth	-17.2	14	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (50)

By cuisine

Dessert 8 · Coffee 7 · Bakery 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Mexican 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 12 · Bar 10 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
12th Fairway Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	3798 Cargo Rd	open
Airline Dairy Creme	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	224 N Dixie Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Bakery	228 E National Rd	open
B+J's Shaved Ice	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	237 S Dixie Dr	open
Boston Stoker	Coffee shop	Coffee	Main Terminal	open
Boston Stoker Coffee Co. Roastery Boston Stoker Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10855 Engle Rd	open
Bunkers Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		893 E National Rd	open
Business Traveler's Center	Bar		3600 Terminal Dr	open
Cassano's Pizza King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	738 W National Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	275 E National Rd	open
Christy's Cozy Cooking	Dessert	Dessert	861 Helke Rd	open
Christy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	503 S Dixie Dr	open
Cinnabon Subway	Quick service · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Sandwiches · Bakery · Dessert	175 Northwoods Blvd	open
Curry and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	722 W National Rd	open
Curveball Cajun	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	505 S Dixie Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	48 Fordway Dr	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	128 N Dixie Dr	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		48 Fordway Dr	open
Dragon China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	889 E National Rd	open
Dunkin'	Bakery	Bakery	3621 Terminal Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3621 Terminal Drive	open
El Toro Mexican Bar and Grill El Toro Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	794 Northwoods Blvd	open
Fox's Pizza Den Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	694 W National Rd	open
Fricker's Fricker's Restaurants	Bar · Casual dining		22 Foley Dr	open
Friendly's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	564 W National Rd	open
Fu Ying	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	790 Northwoods Blvd	open
Hairless Hare Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		738 W National Rd	open
High Spirits Tavern	Bar		11419 N Dixie Dr	open
Hot Head Burritos Hot Head Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	116 E National Rd	open
Jim's Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	122 E National Rd	open
Kathy's Cakery & Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	115 E National Rd	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Chicken / wings	420 E National Rd	open
Max & Erma's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3600 Terminal Rd	open
Maxs Sports And Spirits Vandalia	Bar · Casual dining		400 E National Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	530 E National Rd	open
Original Rib House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	275 E National Rd	open
Oscar's	Bar		318 N Dixie Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	337 E National Rd Montgomery	open
Quiznos	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3600 Terminal Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	Concourse A	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	780 Northwoods Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	312 E National Rd	open
Super Subby's Super Subby's Kettering	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	690 W National Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	323 E. National Rd	open
The Eley Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Here street	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	380 E National Rd	open
Warehouse 4 Coffee Warehouse 4	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	335 S Dixie Dr	open
Wellness For Me, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		505 Corporate Center Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	383 E National Rd	open
World Café	Café	Coffee	786 Northwoods Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	27	21	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	25	19	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	27	22	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	32	29	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	38	34	14	19	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	35	30	13	16	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	30	26	10	15	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	32	28	11	16	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	35	29	7	18	3	4	NAICS1997
2003	33	29	6	19	3	3	NAICS2002
2004	34	30	7	17	4	3	NAICS2002
2005	31	29	8	17	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	30	28	6	18	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	36	33	6	20	6	3	NAICS2002
2008	36	32	6	20	5	3	NAICS2007
2009	36	32	6	20	6	2	NAICS2007
2010	34	30	7	19	4	2	NAICS2007
2011	35	29	8	15	6	4	NAICS2007
2012	33	27	8	14	5	4	NAICS2012
2013	33	26	8	14	4	4	NAICS2012
2014	28	24	7	14	3	2	NAICS2012
2015	30	25	6	14	5	3	NAICS2012
2016	27	22	5	14	3	3	NAICS2012
2017	30	23	5	15	3	3	NAICS2017
2018	30	23	6	15	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	33	25	7	16	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	32	24	5	16	3	3	NAICS2017
2021	33	23	4	16	3	3	NAICS2017
2022	36	25	4	18	3	4	NAICS2022
2023	32	24	3	18	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45377. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45371	3.8 mi	23	2023
45414	4.5 mi	60	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.