BMIE Market 45434

Greene County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,742 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±381 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,163 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,594 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$135,948 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,010 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,632 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$309,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45434
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+71.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45434. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.0	82	40%	+32.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.7	71	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	60.1	60	25%	+15.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,529	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	135,948	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	4,742	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	9.1	53	35%	+18.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.6	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	12,529	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	135,948	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	9.1	53	30%	+16.0
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Mexican 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 6 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cherry House Cafe	Café	Coffee · American	1241 Meadow Bridge Dr	open
Creek Investments, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2531 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
East of Chicago Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3195 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3281 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
GE Aviation	Bar		2455 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Hot Head Burritos Hot Head Burritos	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	3195 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Jinhua Company, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3195 Dayton Xenia Rd Ste 750	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3167 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3157 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Old Scratch Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2450 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	3281 Dayton-Xenia Road	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1243 Meadow Bridge Dr	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3201 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Ritter's Frozen Custard Ritter's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2531 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Southern Ohio Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		818 Factory Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3165 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Submarine House Submarine House	Bar · Casual dining		3195 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3218 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3195 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Umbrella Bar	Bar · Casual dining · Café	Coffee		open
VFW Post 8312	Bar		2389 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Wellington Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2450 Dayton Xenia Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3220 Dayton Xenia Rd.	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	2	4	3	2	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	11	10	2	5	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	14	3	7	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	3	8	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	3	7	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	3	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	3	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	—	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	—	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	4	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45434. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45301	0.9 mi	1	2006
45430	2.4 mi	6	2023
45432	3.1 mi	29	2023
45431	4.0 mi	83	2023
45435	4.4 mi	2	1997
45440	4.9 mi	64	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.