BMIE Market 45669

Lawrence County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,243 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,354 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,399 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,543 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,267 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$189,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,431 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45669
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+140.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45669. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.2	60	40%	+24.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.4	61	35%	+21.5
Market Momentum Score	67.2	67	25%	+16.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,243	71	40%	+28.5
Median household income (ACS)	67,500	43	40%	+17.2
Households (ACS)	4,354	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.7	66	25%	+16.4
Population (ACS)	10,243	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	67,500	43	20%	+8.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Biggby Coffee Biggby Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	126 State St.	open
Bodimers Country Store	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	219 State St	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6262 County Rd 107	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	142 County Road 403	open
Gino's Pizza & Spaghetti House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	240 State St	open
Giovanni's Pizza Giovanni's Fairborn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8065 County Rd 107	open
Katimali's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	97 State St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6232 St Rt 7	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8013 Old State Route 7	open
Romeo's Pizza Romeo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	75 County Rd 411	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	142 County Road 403 W Suite 3	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	111 State Street	open
Tudor's Biscuit World Tudor's Biscuit World	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast · American	240 State St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	120 State St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	—	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	1	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	1	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	1	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	—	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	1	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	—	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	—	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45669. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
25537	4.8 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.