BMIE Market 48003

Lapeer County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±445 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,471 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,070 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,372 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,452 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$968 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±177 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$290,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,442 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 48003
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-38.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 48003. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.9	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.8	48	35%	+16.7
Market Momentum Score	16.2	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,339	64	40%	+25.7
Median household income (ACS)	90,452	74	40%	+29.4
Households (ACS)	2,471	64	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	6,339	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	90,452	74	20%	+14.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-38.5	7	50%	+3.7
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 4 · Bar 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&W Restaurant	Quick service	Burgers · American	4549 S Van Dyke Rd	open
Almont Roza's Pizza	Catering	Pizza · Italian	133 S Main St	open
Blake's Backyard	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5600 Van Dyke Rd	open
Blake's Backyard	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5600 Van Dyke Rd	open
Brunch at Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	208 N Main St	open
Buccilli's Cakes and Pizza	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Pizza · Dessert	129 N Main St	open
Charlie Brown’s Coney Island & Ice Cream	Dessert · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	750 N Van Dyke Rd	open
Chicky's Paradise Saloon	Bar		133 N Main St	open
China 1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	880 N Van Dyke Rd	open
China 1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	880 N Van Dyke Rd	open
Ev n Em's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	102 N Main St	open
Good Grounds Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	126 N Main St	open
Huddle Bar and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		113 S Main St	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	882 Van Dyke	open
Maria's Place Restaurant	Casual dining	American	141 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	894 N Van Dyke	open
Roots Roots	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	107 S Main St	open
Señor Victors	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	113 S Main St	open
Small Town Bar	Specialty food shop · Casual dining · Quick service · Bar	Sandwiches	133 S Main St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	868 Van Dyke Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 48003. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.