BMIE Market 48451

Genesee County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,097 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,927 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,767 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,950 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$99,943 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,596 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,032 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$283,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,971 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 48451
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+140.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+140.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 48451. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.8	79	40%	+31.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83.2	83	35%	+29.1
Market Momentum Score	83.3	83	25%	+20.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,097	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	99,943	81	40%	+32.4
Households (ACS)	5,927	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	71.4	88	35%	+30.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.5	83	25%	+20.6
Population (ACS)	16,097	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	99,943	81	20%	+16.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	140	98	50%	+49.0
10-year restaurant growth	71.4	88	30%	+26.5
20-year restaurant growth	9.1	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 6 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bridge 117 Cafe and Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		117 N Bridge St	open
Bridge Street Brewtique	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	208 N Bridge St	open
Calabria Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	517 E Broad St	open
Cancun Mexican Restaurant #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8291 Silver Lake Rd	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	618 W Broad St	open
Ciaravella's Pizzeria and Bakery	Dessert	Pizza · Dessert	111 S Bridge St	open
Cottage Inn Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	227 Silver Lake Rd	open
Crow's Nest	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		122 E Broad St	open
Down The Hatch Pub	Bar		207 N Bridge St	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8351 Silver Lake Road	open
Ice Cream Garage	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	106 S Bridge St	open
Linden Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		117 N Bridge St	open
Linden Coney Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	123 N Bridge St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	612 W Broad St	open
McDonald's	Quick service		8361 Silver Lake Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	603 W Broad St	open
Northshore Market	Dessert · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Pizza · American	16177 S Seymour Rd	open
Shirley's Cafe & Grill	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	522 W Broad St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	in Walmart	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	200 E Broad St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	605 West Broad Street	open
Tami's Sweet Treats	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	8369 Rustic Trl	open
The Blue Rocky Lounge	Bar		3462 E Rolston Rd	open
Westwind Milling Company, Llc	Bakery	Bakery	8572 Silver Lake Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	16	14	6	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	9	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 48451. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.