BMIE Market 49685

Grand Traverse County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,308 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,121 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,419 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±475 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	Data source not yet connected
Housing units	Data source not yet connected
Median household income	$84,590 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,057 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,448 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±136 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$358,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,733 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	54.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 49685
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 49685. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.5	76	40%	+30.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.1	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	30.0	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,308	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	84,590	68	40%	+27.1
Households (ACS)	8,419	82	20%	+16.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.8	96	25%	+23.9
Population (ACS)	21,308	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	84,590	68	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	1,000	100	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Burgers 5 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Coffee 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 7 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bergstrom's Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	905 US-31	open
big boy traverse city, mi Big Boy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3828 U.S. 31, Traverse City, MI 49684, USA	open
Biggby Coffee Biggby Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4041 US 31 South	open
Boone's Long Lake Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	7208 Secor Rd	open
Brewery Terra Firma	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2959 Hartman Rd	open
Caffeinated	Coffee shop	Coffee	841 US-31	open
China Lee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3985 Beitner Rd #1	open
Crusted Creations	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4025 Chums Village Dr	open
Cultured Ferments	Casual dining · Bar		3842 Jupiter Cresent Dr	open
Cultured Kombucha Co.	Brewery / taproom		3842 Jupiter Cresent Dr	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	101 US Highway 31 S	open
Dojo Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	7738 N Long Lake Rd	open
Doug Murdicks EastBay	Dessert		4500 US-31 S	open
Garcia's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2565 W Long Lake Rd	open
Grammas Cookies	Food truck · Dessert · Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	7552 N Long Lake Rd	open
Grand Traverse Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1974 Cass Hartman Ct C	open
Hungry Howie's Pizza Chums Corner Hungry Howie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	903 US Highway 31 S	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	916 US Hwy 31 S	open
Jet's Pizza Jet's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3985 Beitner Rd	open
JR'S Smoke on Wheels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	1141 N East Silver Lake Rd	open
K&A Hop Dogs	Casual dining · Bar		4277 Village Park Dr	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	311 North U.S. 31 South	open
Mancino's Pizza & Grinders	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	841 US Highway 31 S	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	916 US Highway 31 S	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	933 US-31 S	open
McGee’s 31	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · Chicken / wings	273 US Highway 31 S	open
Moomers Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7263 N Long Lake Rd	open
Mulligan's Pub & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2340 W Crown Dr	open
Reliance Transport INC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1831 Perrys Loop	open
Roasterjack Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	867 S East Silver Lake Rd	open
Samsara	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4025 Chums Village Dr	open
Stone House Bread	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4200 US highway 31 S	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	857 US Hwy 31 S	open
Sugar Buzz TC	Food truck · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
The Local's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café · Bar	Coffee	273 US Highway 31 S	open
Top Tier Cakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	903 Valley View Dr	open
Tw Management, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		857 US Highway 31 S	open
Whitefish Wayne's - A Great Lakes Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1683 US-31	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2005	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	2	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	2	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	1	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	13	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	11	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 49685. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
49684	4.4 mi	121	2023
49637	4.4 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.