BMIE Market 49696

Grand Traverse County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,477 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±842 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,156 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±314 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	Data source not yet connected
Housing units	Data source not yet connected
Median household income	$94,803 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,301 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,418 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±163 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$306,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	68.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 49696
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2003–2023 (7 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	99 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 49696. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2003–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.9	74	40%	+29.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.5	82	35%	+28.9
Market Momentum Score	98.9	99	25%	+24.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,477	71	40%	+28.6
Median household income (ACS)	94,803	77	40%	+30.9
Households (ACS)	4,156	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.8	95	25%	+36.7
Population (ACS)	10,477	71	20%	+22.0
Median household income (ACS)	94,803	77	20%	+23.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 99 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	300	100	50%	+71.3
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+27.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (4)

By cuisine

American 2 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 2 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Francisco Fire Side BBQ And Tavern.	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	197 E Arbutus Lake Rd	open
Ice Involved Citizens Ent	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1600 Chartwell Dr Ste A	open
Peegeo's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	525 High Lake Rd	open
South Creek Saloon	Bar	American	1023 S Ridge Ct	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2020	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 49696. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.