BMIE Market 50211

Warren County, Iowa · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±509 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,546 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,192 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,330 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,712 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,514 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$851 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±140 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$316,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,874 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	58.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 50211
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 50211. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Iowa and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 635, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.3	80	40%	+32.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.9	78	35%	+27.3
Market Momentum Score	77.1	77	25%	+19.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,835	78	40%	+31.4
Median household income (ACS)	103,712	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	6,546	78	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	35%	+26.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	16,835	78	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	103,712	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	30%	+22.6
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (58)

By cuisine

Coffee 11 · Pizza 10 · American 6 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Mexican 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Bar 13 · Coffee shop 11 · Casual dining 8 · Quick service 8 · Café 5 · Dessert 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Delivery-focused 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1908 Draught House 1908 Draught House	Bar · Casual dining		9500 Market Pl Dr	open
804 Main Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		804 Main St.	open
Always Bean Here	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · American	2700 Coffee Ave	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9301 Marketplace Dr	open
Beardsley St & Market PI Dr Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9441 Marketplace Dr	open
Benny's Beans	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1951 E 18th St	open
Broadbent Distillery	Brewery / taproom		6175 50th Ave	open
Carper Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		4603 Dakota St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1510 Sunset Dr	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	500 North Ave	open
CherryBerry Norwalk, IA	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1611 Sunset Dr Ste 200	open
China Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2351 Sunset Dr	open
Club Wakonda	Bar · Casual dining		4421 Wakonda Dr	open
Cooper's Central Table & Cocktail	Bar	American	1400 Chatham Ave	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service			open
Daily Grind	Coffee shop	Coffee	1120 Sunset Dr	open
Debbie's Tro Sno	Dessert	Dessert	1104 Sunset Dr	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1300 Turnberry Dr Suite 100	open
El Dorado Mexican Restaurant and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1327 Sunset Dr	open
El Maya Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2351 Sunset Dr #105	open
Fairway Frank's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	729 Main St	open
Ferinheit Wood Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Pizza	1398 Warrior Run Dr	open
Fischer Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2880 R63 Hwy	open
Fishers Coconut Monkey	Bar		2306 Merle Huff Ave	open
Godfathers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1611 Sunset Dr	open
Grounds Around Town	Coffee shop	Coffee	1120 Sunset Dr	open
Grounds Around Town	Coffee shop	Coffee	4380 Wakonda Dr	open
Gus and Lisa's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	1220 Sunset Dr #101	open
Hyper Energy Bar Hyper Energy	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1721 Hughes Dr	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1327 Sunset Dr #700	open
Mahalo's Coffee & Mini-donuts	Coffee shop	Coffee	1850 Sunset Dr	open
Maid-Rite	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Sandwiches · American	1031 Sunset Dr	open
Marv’s Mainstreet Dive	Bar		804 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2901 Sunset	open
Michael Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6135 Delaware St	open
Northern Lights Pizza (116) Northern Lights Pizza	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	1327 Sunset Dr	open
Norwalk Mullets	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1951 E 18th St	open
Nutri Smoothie & Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1601 Chatham Avenue	open
Overturf Enterpriseslc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1031 Sunset Dr	open
Pho Wheels & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	627 Wright Rd	open
Phonatics & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Vietnamese	1611 Sunset Dr	open
Pin High Sports Bar	Bar		1951 E 18th St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	2351 Sunset Dr. Warren	open
Pizza Ranch Pizza Ranch	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9400 Market Pl Dr	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	9441 Marketplace Dr	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	9441 Marketplace Drive	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1950 Sunset Drive	open
Subway Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Quick service	Sandwiches	2991 Sunset Dr	open
Sunset Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		1409 Sunset Dr	open
Taco John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1611 Sunset Dr	open
Tacos Andreas Authentic Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1400 Sunset Dr	open
The Flamingo Lounge	Casual dining · Bar	American	3089 North Ave	open
Tro Sno Norwalk, Iowa	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1120 Sunset Dr	open
Tulancingo, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2351 Sunset Dr Ste 105	open
Wendy's Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1043 Sunset Dr	open
Winn's Pizza and Steakhouse Norwalk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Pizza	1611 Sunset Dr	open
Xcite Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	1611 Sunset Dr #200	open
Pyra Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	729 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 50211. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
50061	5.0 mi	1	2008

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.