BMIE Market 51401

Carroll County, Iowa · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,990 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±232 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,310 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±239 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,373 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,579 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,702 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,012 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$726 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$195,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	168.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 51401
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 22–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 51401. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Iowa and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 635, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.6	64	40%	+25.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38.5	39	35%	+13.5
Market Momentum Score	34.5	35	25%	+8.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,990	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	70,702	48	40%	+19.2
Households (ACS)	5,310	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.5	31	25%	+7.8
Population (ACS)	11,990	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	70,702	48	20%	+9.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 9 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Bar 15 · Quick service 11 · Casual dining 10 · Coffee shop 9 · Café 5 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1730 Tap House	Bar · Casual dining		1730 N US Highway 71	open
Abelardo's Mexican Food Abelardo's Mexican Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	821 US-30	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1515 Plaza Dr	open
Bloomers Sports Bar And Grill	Bar		1235 Plaza Dr	open
Bosque Alto Roastery	Coffee shop	Coffee	110 W 6th St	open
Brothers On Main Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	529 N Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	915 US-30 W	open
Carroll Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		226 E 5th St	open
Carroll National Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	20069 Olympic Ave	open
Carroll Pr Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		425 W Us Highway 30 Ste 130	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	510 E Hwy 30	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	613 US Hwy 30 W	open
Charlie's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1730 N US Highway 71	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	212 Main Street	open
Culver's Culver's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	405 W US Highway 30	open
Denny's	Casual dining	American	227 N Carroll St	open
Earl’s Doghouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		24510 215th St	open
Family Table Family Table Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1525 Radiant Rd	open
Godfather's Pizza Godfather's Pizza Dayton, OH	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	624 W US Highway 30	open
GRIND Coffee Bar & Gift Shop Grind Philippines	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	220 W 7th St	open
Grit	Bar		401 260th St	open
Hour Glass	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		218 W 6th St	open
Hunan Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	708 Simon Ave	open
Iowa Legendary Rye	Winery / distillery / taproom		707 N Main St	open
Jalisco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	425 W US Highway 30	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	427 E 6th St	open
Kel-Bel's Goodies	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1008 N West St	open
Kerp's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		223 E 5th St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	422 Us Hwy 30	open
La Hacienda Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1012 N US Highway 71	open
Las Tarascas Mexican Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		118 E 7th St	open
Lincoln Hwy & Quint Ave Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	709 W Hwy 30	open
Mc's Country Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	756 E US Highway 30	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	912 US-30 W	open
Mom's Authentic Mexican Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		227 N Carroll St	open
Napoli’s Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1205 US-30 Ste a	open
Nava, L.l.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		425 W US Highway 30	open
Piranha Club	Casual dining · Bar		1215 Plaza Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	801 Plaza Dr	open
Pizza Ranch Pizza Ranch	Buffet	Pizza · Chicken / wings	425 W US Highway 30	open
Queen Beans Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	522 N Clark St	open
Rancho Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	323 N Main St	open
Restaurante El Palomo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1507 Radiant Rd	open
Roselle Tavern	Bar		24501 Jade Ave	open
Sam & Louie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	425 W US Highway 30 Ste 110	open
Scoops & Co.	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	504 N Adams St	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	709 West St	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	709 Highway 30	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	709 Highway 30	open
Shake’s	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1302 US-71	open
SideTracked Taproom	Bar · Brewery / taproom		226 E 5th St	open
Ski's Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	127 W 5th St	open
Sozi's Kitchen Sushi and Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	227 N Carroll St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1240 US-30	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2014 Kittyhawk Rd	open
Sweets by Jannelle	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	720 Mockingbird Dr	open
Swizzle Stick Bar and Lounge	Bar		1730 US-71	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	US-30	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1819 Kittyhawk Ave	open
Taco John's Taco John's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	513 E 6th St	open
Taqueria los comales Carroll Iowa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	821 Us Hy 30 west	open
The Angry Beaver Bar	Bar · Casual dining	American	18049 Main St	open
The Clubhouse Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	20069 Olympic Ave	open
The Cuban Corner	Quick service	Sandwiches	810 E Lincoln Hwy, Carroll Iowa 51401	open
The Cupola	Bar		519 N Main St	open
Trotical Sno Carroll location	Restaurant (service type not stated)		710 E US Highway 30	open
Wahlburgers @ Hy-Vee Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Pizza · Coffee · Burgers	905 US Hwy 30 W	open
Wasted Grain	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1235 Plaza Dr	open
Whiskey Run	Bar		17499 Ivy Ave	open
Santa Maria Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		218 W 6th St # 2342	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	32	27	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	29	25	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	28	24	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	34	28	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	32	26	16	7	2	5	NAICS1997
1999	29	23	15	5	2	5	NAICS1997
2000	29	24	15	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	27	22	13	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	27	22	13	8	1	4	NAICS1997
2003	30	24	14	8	2	5	NAICS2002
2004	28	23	14	8	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	30	25	14	9	1	5	NAICS2002
2006	28	23	14	8	—	5	NAICS2002
2007	33	26	12	11	2	7	NAICS2002
2008	28	23	9	12	2	5	NAICS2007
2009	31	26	11	13	1	5	NAICS2007
2010	30	27	11	14	1	3	NAICS2007
2011	32	29	14	14	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	34	29	13	12	2	5	NAICS2012
2013	34	30	14	13	2	4	NAICS2012
2014	32	28	13	12	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	33	27	11	14	2	5	NAICS2012
2016	30	24	9	13	2	5	NAICS2012
2017	33	27	10	15	—	5	NAICS2017
2018	34	27	12	14	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	36	29	14	14	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	36	28	12	14	—	7	NAICS2017
2021	36	28	11	14	3	7	NAICS2017
2022	37	27	10	14	3	7	NAICS2022
2023	39	27	7	16	4	8	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 51401. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.