BMIE Market 53528

Dane County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,263 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±390 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,494 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,734 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,342 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$106,823 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,912 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,423 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$436,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,380 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	44.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53528
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53528. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.5	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.0	50	35%	+17.5
Market Momentum Score	36.6	37	25%	+9.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,263	64	40%	+25.6
Median household income (ACS)	106,823	85	40%	+34.0
Households (ACS)	2,494	64	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.4	55	25%	+13.8
Population (ACS)	6,263	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	106,823	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 4 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1200 Main Street Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1200 Main St	open
Athens Gyros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	23 Glacier Edge Sq	open
Coach's Club	Bar		1200 Main St	open
Crossroads Coffeehouse	Coffee shop	Coffee	2020 Main St	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2523 Main Street	open
Dettmann Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		4200 Co Hwy P	open
Dotty's Bar & Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1200 Main St	open
Esser's Cross Plains Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2109 Hickory St	open
General Tso's Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	30 Glaciers Edge Square	open
Glacier Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2531 Main St	open
Home Roast Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1019 Tilda Trl	open
HOOTY'S BAR AND GRILL	Bar		1821 Main St	open
Montag's Pub And Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining		1821 Main St	open
Morgan's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		8640 W Mineral Point Rd	open
Morgan's Bar	Bar		8640 W Mineral Point Rd	open
Nineteen09	Bar		1909 Main St	open
PJ's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1830 Main St	open
Red Mouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3738 County Rd P	open
Taqueria El Milagro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		23 Glacier Edge Sq	open
The Creekside Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2020 Main St	open
The Hilltop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	4173 Co Hwy P	open
The Keg	Bar · Casual dining		7773 Martinsville Rd	open
Vessel Cafe	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Breakfast · Bakery	1820 Main St	open
We do it all roofing	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American		open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	12	10	4	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	5	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	6	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	6	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	9	6	3	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	10	6	3	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	11	6	2	3	1	4	NAICS2002
2008	12	7	3	3	1	4	NAICS2007
2009	13	8	3	4	1	4	NAICS2007
2010	13	8	3	4	1	4	NAICS2007
2011	13	7	2	4	1	5	NAICS2007
2012	15	10	3	6	1	5	NAICS2012
2013	15	10	3	6	1	5	NAICS2012
2014	16	11	4	6	1	5	NAICS2012
2015	14	10	4	5	1	4	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	4	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	11	8	3	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	13	9	4	4	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	14	10	4	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	11	7	3	3	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	17	11	4	4	3	6	NAICS2017
2022	14	9	4	3	—	5	NAICS2022
2023	14	9	3	4	—	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53528. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
53562	4.8 mi	76	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.