BMIE Market 53558

Dane County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,164 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±627 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±292 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,742 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,438 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,609 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,057 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,550 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±95 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$405,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,683 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53558
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53558. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.1	79	40%	+31.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.7	74	35%	+25.8
Market Momentum Score	45.2	45	25%	+11.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,164	75	40%	+29.9
Median household income (ACS)	107,609	85	40%	+34.1
Households (ACS)	5,391	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	35%	+24.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.6	70	25%	+17.5
Population (ACS)	13,164	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	107,609	85	20%	+17.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.7	21	50%	+10.7
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	55.6	69	20%	+13.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 4 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 14 · Casual dining 6 · Café 5 · Quick service 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5100 Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5100 Erling Ave	open
Angelo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4706 Farwell St	open
Benetta’s Delights	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6019 Merrill St	open
Brasserie M	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French	5437 N Peninsula Way	open
Cactus Brewery	Brewery / taproom		4815 Catalina Pkwy	open
Capital Coffee & Water Service	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4719 Ivywood Trl	open
Culver's Culver's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	4700 Farwell Street	open
Grace Coffee McFarland Grace Coffee McFarland	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4719 Farwell St	open
Green Lantern Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4412 Siggelkow Rd	open
Idle Hands Barrel Works	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4815 Catalina Pkwy	open
Kov Campground & Resort	Casual dining · Bar			open
Left Bank Wine Co	Bar		4910 Triangle St	open
Lily's Ice Cream Parlour	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5923 Exchange St	open
Luke's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	5700 US-51	open
Main Moon Main Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4850 Larson Beach Rd	open
Maple Tree Supper Club	Bar	Steakhouse · American	6010 US-51	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4800 Larson Beach Road	open
McFarland House Cafe	Café · Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	5923 Exchange St	open
McFarland Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	5915 Exchange St	open
Palenque Restaurant McFarland	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5906 US-51	open
Park Side Pub	Bar		5016 Erling Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	5728 Highway 51 Dane	open
Pizza Pit Franchising	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5706 Us Highway 51	open
Rock'n Rollz Sandwich Co	Other	Sandwiches	5208 Farwell St	open
Smoking Elvis' Bbq Emporium.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ		open
Spartan Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5124 Farwell St	open
Spartan Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	4802 Farwell St	open
Spartan Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	5813 Main St	open
Squirrel's Nest	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2655 US-51	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5900 US Hwy 51	open
The Mekong	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Asian	5100 Erling Ave	open
The Prieve House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5511 Holscher Rd	open
The WineHouse Lounge	Bar		4719 Farwell St #105	open
Vivre le Rêve LLC	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	6010 US-51	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	13	8	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	19	11	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1998	18	10	4	6	—	8	NAICS1997
1999	17	11	4	7	—	6	NAICS1997
2000	19	14	3	10	1	5	NAICS1997
2001	15	9	2	7	—	6	NAICS1997
2002	16	7	3	4	—	8	NAICS1997
2003	16	9	5	4	—	6	NAICS2002
2004	17	9	5	4	—	7	NAICS2002
2005	16	9	5	4	—	6	NAICS2002
2006	17	11	4	7	—	5	NAICS2002
2007	18	12	5	6	1	5	NAICS2002
2008	20	12	4	7	1	6	NAICS2007
2009	20	13	3	8	2	7	NAICS2007
2010	16	12	3	8	1	4	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	8	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	16	9	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	15	8	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	18	15	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53558. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.