BMIE Market 55003

Washington County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,905 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,150 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,471 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	912 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$125,893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,552 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,028 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±517 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$376,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,059 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55003
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55003. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.8	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.5	62	35%	+21.5
Market Momentum Score	73.5	73	25%	+18.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,905	57	40%	+22.6
Median household income (ACS)	125,893	92	40%	+36.8
Households (ACS)	1,150	52	20%	+10.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.9	43	25%	+10.7
Population (ACS)	3,905	57	20%	+11.3
Median household income (ACS)	125,893	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · BBQ 2 · American 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 4 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
210 Bar-b-que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	328 5th Ave N	open
Bayport BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	328 5th Ave N	open
Bayport Cookery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		328 5th Ave N	open
Bread Art	Bakery	Bakery	110 3rd St N	open
Five Course Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		328 5th Ave N	open
L'etoile Du Nord Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	320 5th Ave N	open
La Cocinita	Restaurant (service type not stated)		338 5th Ave N	open
Langford Exchange	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		328 5th Ave N	open
Mabel's Ice Cream and Coffee Shop	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	293 3rd St N	open
Mallards on the St Croix	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	101 5th Ave S Bayport Marina	open
Manger Restaurant and Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	European	320 5th Ave N	open
Marty's Meadows	Bar		380 4th St S	open
Not Justa Bar & Cafe Not Justa Cafe and Bar - Bayport, MN	Casual dining · Café · Bar	Coffee	177 3rd St N	open
Olio	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	338 5th Ave N	open
Son’s Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	110 3rd St N	open
The Taste Experience LLC	Bar		135 State St S	open
Woodys Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		109 3rd St N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	7	5	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	5	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	6	4	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	10	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	10	5	5	—	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	9	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55003. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
54016	4.5 mi	70	2023
54082	4.5 mi	2	2016
55043	4.6 mi	3	2018

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.