BMIE Market 55115

Washington County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,949 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,249 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±183 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,607 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,255 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$124,234 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,136 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,628 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$488,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,844 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55115
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55115. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.7	65	35%	+22.6
Market Momentum Score	24.5	25	25%	+6.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,949	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	124,234	92	40%	+36.7
Households (ACS)	3,249	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.8	81	25%	+20.3
Population (ACS)	8,949	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	124,234	92	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Mexican 4 · Coffee 3 · American 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
B. Y. O. Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	961 E. County Line	open
Carbone's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	960 Mahtomedi Ave	open
Coffee Cottage	Coffee shop	Coffee	88 Mahtomedi Ave	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	850 Wildwood Rd	open
El Pariente Mexican Grill - Street Tacos & Micheladas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	961 Wildwood Rd	open
Hello Boba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	951 Wildwood Rd	open
Mansetti's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	6511 Warner Ave S	open
Olive Joe's	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	106 Wildwood Ct	open
Red Luna Seasons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	114 Mahtomedi Ave	open
Salad Girl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1165 Summit Ave	open
Small Town Sourdough by Lorrie	Bakery	Bakery	1268 Lincolntown Ave	open
Taco's Fresh Sports + Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3156 Century Ave	open
The Dugout Bar	Bar · Casual dining		96 Mahtomedi Ave	open
The Wild Bean	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	88 Mahtomedi Ave	open
The Wildwood Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		80 Mahtomedi Ave	open
Woodys Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1357 Griffin Ave	open
Lakeside Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	10 Old Wildwood Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	8	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	12	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	2	6	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	16	14	6	6	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	4	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	11	9	4	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	8	6	2	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	2	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	7	2	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	8	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	11	8	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55115. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55090	1.0 mi	3	2022
55110	3.1 mi	68	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.