BMIE Market 55309

Sherburne County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,378 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±694 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,152 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,208 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,454 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,398 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±205 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$361,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,231 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	62.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55309
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+41.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+112.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+142.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55309. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.3	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.1	82	35%	+28.7
Market Momentum Score	76.2	76	25%	+19.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,378	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	121,711	91	40%	+36.4
Households (ACS)	7,152	80	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	41.7	78	35%	+27.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	81	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	21,378	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	121,711	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	41.7	78	30%	+23.4
20-year restaurant growth	112.5	86	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · American 5 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 9 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bar 10	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		16496 149th St SE	open
Big Lake Rose Dr Erbert & Gerbert's	Quick service	Sandwiches	711 Rose Dr.	open
Buttercream Creations	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	116 Addison Way	open
Cambo Flare	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	16777 Marketplace Dr # B	open
Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	726 Martin Avenue	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	520 Jefferson Blvd	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	55 Cty Rd 43 NW	open
Chick-fil-A Big Lake Chick-fil-A SoCal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	461 Jefferson Blvd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	300 Fern St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	726 Martin Ave	open
El Loro Mexican Restaurant Big Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16792 198th Ave NW	open
Ember Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	450 Jefferson Blvd	open
Erbert & Gerbert's Erbert & Gerbert's	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	711 Rose Dr	open
Figaros Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	726 Martin Ave	open
Getaway Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		26211 184th St	open
Jane's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4498 Sterling Dr	open
Klatt Sales Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		651 Rose Dr # 3	open
Lake Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	430 Jefferson Blvd	open
Lupulin Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		570 Humboldt Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	330 Jefferson Blvd	open
McPete's Sports Bar & Lanes	Bar		590 Humboldt Dr	open
Mp Of Big Lake, Llc, A Minnesota Ltd.liability Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		590 Humboldt Dr	open
No 1 China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	726 Martin Ave Ste 110	open
Pizza Factory Pizza Factory, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	160 Lake St N	open
Pizza Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	651 Rose Dr	open
Raymie's Pizza etc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	561 Rose Dr Unit 3	open
Rocket Concessions	Quick service · Food truck	Pizza	16910 231st Ave NW	open
Russell's On The Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	111 Jefferson Blvd	open
Sand Dunes Spirits	Bar		26269 184th St	open
SliceCraft	Restaurant (service type not stated)		570 Humboldt Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	630 1/2 Rose Dr	open
Taste of Thai and Lao	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1677 market place dr, big lake man 55309	open
The Buff	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	16722 198th Ave NW	open
The Hideout Bar and Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16496 149th St SE	open
The Little Blue Bakery & Boutique	Bakery	Bakery	18509 County Road 14 NW	open
Third Rail Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		47 Lake St S	open
Tootsie's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		110 Jefferson Blvd	open
Trail's Grill & Sports Bar	Casual dining · Bar		726 Martin Ave Ste 116	open
Vernon Street Pub	Bar · Quick service			open
Vitta's Mexican Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	16792 198th Ave	open
Willy's on the Water Willy’s On The Water	Bar · Casual dining	American	111 Jefferson Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	14	10	8	2	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	12	8	5	3	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	15	9	4	5	—	5	NAICS2002
2005	19	12	6	5	1	5	NAICS2002
2006	18	15	10	3	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	22	18	10	6	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	20	16	9	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	18	14	8	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	17	13	7	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	16	13	7	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	16	13	6	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	15	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	19	16	7	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	14	6	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	6	7	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	9	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	15	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	15	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	17	9	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55309. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.