BMIE Market 55387

Carver County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,030 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±217 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,746 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±229 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,249 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,675 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$114,511 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,294 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$440,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	31.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55387
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+86.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+154.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	32 (range 28–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	82 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55387. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.3	81	40%	+32.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.6	75	35%	+26.1
Market Momentum Score	82.0	82	25%	+20.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,030	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	114,511	88	40%	+35.4
Households (ACS)	5,746	76	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	86.7	90	35%	+31.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.6	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	15,030	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	114,511	88	20%	+17.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	86.7	90	30%	+26.9
20-year restaurant growth	154.6	89	20%	+17.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (65)

By cuisine

Coffee 14 · American 13 · Pizza 6 · Bakery 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 13 · Bar 12 · Café 12 · Coffee shop 10 · Casual dining 7 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Food truck 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Catering 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beef O'Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		813 Marketplace Dr	open
Bode Gray's Bill Gray's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining · Café	Bakery · American · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	125 W 1st St	open
Bruegger's Bagels And Caribou Coffee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	77 W State Highway 5	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	851 Marketplace Dr	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	77 MN-5	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1301 Oak Avenue	open
Chumly's Bar	Bar		112 Main St W	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10710 10th St	open
D'Vinci's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	540 S Elm St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10610 W 10th St	open
Dem Bones Bar B Que	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	140 MN-5	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	232 W 1st St	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		10610 W 10th St	open
Egg-Cetera Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	241 E Frontage Rd	open
Frozen Five Ice Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8 W 1st St	open
Garage Bar & Bowl	Bar		16 W 1st St	open
Golden Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	785 Marketplace Dr	open
Ground Round Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	520 S Cherry Dr	open
H L Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	101 E 2nd St	open
Hopper's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		119 S Olive St	open
Iron Tap	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	140 W Main St	open
Island View Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7795 Laketown Pkwy, # 30	open
J. Carver Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1320 Mill Ln	open
Java Relief Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1769 Seashell Ln	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	10720 W 10th Street Suite 106	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	140 Depot Dr	open
Jo Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	208 Industrial Blvd	open
Kbdc Investments Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		318 E Lake St	open
Laketown Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	250 W 1st St	open
Lola's Lakehouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	318 E Lake St	open
Mama’s Gyro & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1301 Oak Ave	open
Market Place Dr & Waconia Pkwy S Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	660 Marketplace Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	910 Strong Dr	open
Mocha Monkey	Coffee shop · Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	115 S Olive St	open
Pangea Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	37 W 1st St	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Bakery	Pizza · Bakery	1309 Oak Avenue	open
Parley Lake Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8280 Parley Lake Rd	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	875 E Main St	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service		875 E Main Street	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10720 W 10th St Waconia	open
Rey Azteca of Waconia El Loro Big Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other)	813 Marketplace Dr	open
Rolling Hearth Bistro	Food truck · Catering	Pizza	1311 Ravenwood Dr	open
Schram Vineyards Winery and Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		8785 Airport Rd	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	660 Marketplace Dr	open
Sizzle Street	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	813 Marketplace Dr	open
Soulful Smoothies	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	44 W 1st St	open
Specialtyjava.com	Coffee shop	Coffee	34 1/2 W Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	10720 10th Street 101	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	875 E Main St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	1301 Oak Ave	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	140 W State Highway 5	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	640 Marketplace Drive	open
Terra Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Catering		1320 Mill Ln	open
The Green Leaf	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	44 W 1st St	open
The Main Scoop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American · Dessert	144 Main St W	open
The Winery at Sovereign Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		9950 N Shore Rd	open
Twin Cities Gyro & Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	1301 Oak Ave	open
Unhinged Pizza Unhinged Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	224 W 1st St	open
Uproot cafe	Café	Coffee	44 1st St W	open
Vandy's Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7795 Laketown Pkwy	open
Waconia Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		255 W Main St	open
Waconia Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	American	16 S Elm St #2	open
Wgr Hospitality, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		520 Cherry Dr	open
Who's ON First?	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 W 1st St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	16	14	9	3	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	7	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	7	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	6	3	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	7	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	6	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	13	6	5	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	19	16	7	7	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	21	17	7	7	3	2	NAICS2002
2008	18	15	9	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	21	18	11	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	21	18	11	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	18	16	9	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	18	16	9	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	15	9	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	23	20	9	9	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	22	17	10	5	2	4	NAICS2012
2016	23	18	10	5	3	3	NAICS2012
2017	29	23	10	9	4	4	NAICS2017
2018	29	24	11	9	4	3	NAICS2017
2019	27	23	11	8	4	3	NAICS2017
2020	26	22	10	8	4	3	NAICS2017
2021	28	24	9	10	5	3	NAICS2017
2022	28	24	7	11	6	3	NAICS2022
2023	33	28	9	11	8	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55387. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55375	3.7 mi	7	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.