BMIE Market 56304

Sherburne County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,473 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±308 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±474 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,020 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,882 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$58,148 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,006 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$956 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$251,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,863 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	60.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56304
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-26.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56304. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.2	58	40%	+23.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.9	45	35%	+15.7
Market Momentum Score	16.4	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,473	79	40%	+31.6
Median household income (ACS)	58,148	26	40%	+10.6
Households (ACS)	7,134	80	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-26.3	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	80	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	17,473	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	58,148	26	20%	+5.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.7	21	50%	+10.7
10-year restaurant growth	-26.3	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	20%	+2.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 8 · Burgers 6 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Dessert 2 · African 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 9 · Bar 6 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
African Yen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		121 Franklin Ave NE	open
Beaudreau's Bar	Bar		414 St Germain St E	open
Burger King	Quick service		222 Lincoln Ave SE	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	310 Lincoln Ave SE Ste 1	open
Coborn's Central Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1445 MN-23	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2ND St SE	open
Copper Kitchen Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	15 Highway 10 S	open
Coyote Moon Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	480 55th Ave SE	open
Culver's Culver's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	901 Hwy 10 South	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	DQ Grill & Chill Restaurant 611 Hwy 10 SE	open
Deg Deg Grill St. Cloud Deg Deg Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		1350 15th Ave SE	open
DiMaggio's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	28 14th Ave NE	open
GW Gourmet Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	21 Wilson Ave NE	open
Haven Halfway House	Quick service		1425 St Germain St E	open
Iron Street Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		539 St Germain St E	open
Jk Flyers	Quick service		1550 45th Ave Se Ste 6	open
Jolie Olie's Sweet Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1728 9th Ave SE	open
Jupiter Moon Ice Cream - St. Cloud	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1399 Kilian Blvd SE	open
Kitchenette	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	417 E St Germain St	open
Lincoln Ave Nutrition Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	101 Lincoln Ave SE	open
Lincoln Depot	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	629 Lincoln Ave SE	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	840 E Saint Germain St	open
Mj Inc. Of St. Cloud	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Highway 10 S	open
Pan-O-Gold Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	444 E St Germain St	open
Rollies	Bar			open
Sbarro	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	348 Lincoln Ave NE	open
Sc Custard, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		901 Highway 10 S	open
Somali Cafe and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	119 E St Germain St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	120 Lincoln Ave SE	open
Super Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1022 4th St SE	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	10 - 8th Avenue S E	open
Urban Gyro & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · American	1350 15th Ave SE	open
Val's Rapid Service	Quick service	Burgers · American	628 E St Germain St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10 Highway 10 N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	18	15	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	23	20	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	21	18	6	11	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	21	18	6	11	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	20	18	6	12	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	21	19	7	12	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	5	12	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	21	18	4	14	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	20	17	4	13	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	5	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	19	7	12	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	22	21	8	13	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	19	9	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	21	19	8	11	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	21	19	7	11	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	21	18	8	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	24	19	8	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	24	19	8	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	23	18	8	10	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	23	18	6	12	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	22	16	5	11	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	21	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56304. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.