BMIE Market 56310

Stearns County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,431 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±625 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,981 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,120 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,130 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,164 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,600 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,064 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±131 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$300,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,786 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	71.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56310
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 10–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.54) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56310. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.54, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.5	71	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.5	66	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	52.1	52	25%	+13.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,431	62	40%	+24.7
Median household income (ACS)	105,164	84	40%	+33.6
Households (ACS)	1,981	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.6	47	25%	+11.8
Population (ACS)	5,431	62	20%	+12.4
Median household income (ACS)	105,164	84	20%	+16.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Burgers 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Avon Cabin Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	105 Avon Ave S	open
Billy's Place	Bar		37224 County Road 9	open
Brudies Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	305 Blattner Dr	open
Buckhorn Bar	Bar · Casual dining		106 Avon Ave, Main St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	303 Avon Ave S	open
Fisher's Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	425 1st St NW	open
Gathering Grounds Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	200 Avon Ave S	open
Lauer Hospitality Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105 Avon Ave S	open
McDonald's	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Coffee · Burgers	304 Blattner Drive	open
PJ's On The Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	421 1st St NW	open
Saint Wendel Saloon	Bar		12555 Co Rd 4	open
Shady's Sunset Bay Shady's Hometown Tavern and Event Center	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		18527 Co Rd 154	open
Spunky's	Bar · Casual dining		110 Avon Ave S	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	303 Blattner Drive	open
The Landing	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		18527 County Road, 154	open
The Scoop Of Avon	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	214-200 3rd St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	8	3	2	1	—	4	NAICS1997
1999	8	3	2	1	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	9	4	3	1	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	10	5	4	1	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	11	7	5	2	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	6	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	8	5	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	11	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	8	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	6	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56310. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
56321	4.7 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.