BMIE Market 56320

Stearns County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,482 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,389 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,080 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,380 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,026 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,390 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$353,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,991 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	51.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56320
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+225.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.41) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56320. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.41, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.2	69	40%	+27.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.0	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	58.9	59	25%	+14.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,482	68	40%	+27.3
Median household income (ACS)	87,026	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	3,389	69	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.3	52	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	8,482	68	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	87,026	70	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	30	52	20%	+10.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Catering 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Heron	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	American	305 5th Ave S	open
Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	201 2nd Ave S, Suite 102	open
Cassidy’s Cozy Bakes	Bakery	Bakery	808 3rd Ave SE	open
Cold Press Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	200 Red River Ave S	open
Cold Spring American Legion	Casual dining · Bar	American	209 Main St	open
Cold Spring Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	308 Main St	open
Cold Spring Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		219 Red River Ave N	open
Cold Spring Brewing Careers	Brewery / taproom		1601 County Road 2	open
Cold Spring Phoenix Too	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	216 Red River Ave S	open
Crave Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	22517 178th Ave	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	880 MN-23	open
Grand Lake Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	21614 County Road 8	open
Grumpy's	Bar		313 Main St	open
Hardee's	Quick service		200 3rd St S	open
Jimmy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	206 Red River Ave S	open
La Perla Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	210 3rd St S	open
Marnanteli's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	314 3rd St S	open
Prince Tobacco	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		24 3rd Ave S Ste 2	open
Red River Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	318 Main St	open
Red Truck Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	113 Main St	open
Rocky's Outdoor Grill and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		804 3rd St N	open
Shady's Long Shots Shady's Hometown Tavern and Event Center	Casual dining · Bar		17467 Fairway Cir	open
Side Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	15 Red River Ave N	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	24 Red River Ave N	open
Third Street Brewhouse	Brewery / taproom · Bar		219 Red River Ave N	open
Winners Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		200 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	9	5	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	8	4	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	4	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	4	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	16	13	7	6	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	5	6	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	3	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	4	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	5	8	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	4	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	4	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	16	9	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56320. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
56369	3.3 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.