BMIE Market 56353

Mille Lacs County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,546 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,854 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,996 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,789 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,763 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,085 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$263,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,572 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	189.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56353
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56353. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.4	66	40%	+26.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.6	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	37.6	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,546	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	78,763	61	40%	+24.2
Households (ACS)	3,854	70	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.5	66	25%	+16.6
Population (ACS)	9,546	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	78,763	61	20%	+12.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	37.5	57	20%	+11.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 3 · American 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 4 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Moon Saloon	Bar		130 8th St NE	open
Brookview Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		6772 90th St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	110 Central Ave N	open
China Panda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	131 1st St W	open
Coffee Corner Coffee Corner	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	350 Central Ave S	open
Daddio's Drive In, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		860 Central Ave N	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	415 10th Ave SE	open
El Jalisco	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	870 Central Ave N	open
FireHouse Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	130 Central Ave S	open
Happys Drive In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		500 Highway 23 W	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	925 1st St E	open
Hardee’s	Quick service		925 1st St E	open
Heggies Pizza LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1115 Enterprise Ave	open
Joe's Candy's and Treats	Dessert		325 5th Ave SE	open
King Sparrow Coffee & Soda Shop	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1000 5th St SE	open
Pizza Central	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	110 Central Ave S	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	345 Central Ave S #4	open
Rough-Cut Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	19034 US-169	open
Round Two Bar and Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1030 Central Ave N	open
Santa Lucia's Ice Cream Santa Lucia's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	170 Central Ave S	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	410 10th Ave SE	open
Sunflower Home Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	320 5th Ave SE	open
Tibbetts Wilderness Cabin Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	13682 208th St	open
Timber Valley Grille	Bar		1030 Central Ave N	open
VFW Post 10794	Bar · Casual dining		145 1st St W	open
Wellness Central	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	210 Central Ave N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	10	7	4	3	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	11	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	12	8	2	6	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	11	8	3	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	12	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	12	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	16	11	5	5	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	16	11	5	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	14	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	16	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56353. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
56313	3.9 mi	2	2001

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.