BMIE Market 56401

Crow Wing County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,841 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,074 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,439 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	14,910 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,128 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,538 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$883 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$261,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	322.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	55 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56401
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+34.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+31.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+10.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	63 (range 59–68) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.7 per year, r² 0.88) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56401. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.88, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.0	75	40%	+30.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.7	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	73.3	73	25%	+18.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,841	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,128	52	40%	+20.8
Households (ACS)	13,074	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	34.2	75	35%	+26.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.3	45	25%	+11.2
Population (ACS)	31,841	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,128	52	20%	+10.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	34.2	75	30%	+22.4
20-year restaurant growth	31.0	53	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (126)

By cuisine

American 30 · Coffee 14 · Pizza 13 · Dessert 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Mexican 5 · BBQ 4 · Chinese 4 · Italian 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 72 · Bar 35 · Casual dining 22 · Quick service 15 · Café 10 · Coffee shop 10 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 7 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Food truck 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5Rocks Distilling Co	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		25 Washington St NE	open
612 Station Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		612 Front St	open
9th Street Social Club	Bar		212 S 9th St	open
Aaa BBQ	Food truck		15545 State Highway 18	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15065 Edgewood Dr	open
Baia Della	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Italian · American	15115 Edgewood Dr	open
Bear Trap Lounge	Bar		11540 Craguns Dr	open
Big Jay's Pizza Arcade	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	217 S 7th St	open
Blue Oyster	Casual dining · Bar	Thai · Asian	612 Front St	open
Boba Stix	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Tea / bubble tea	520 Washington St	open
Bobbies Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1202 S 6th St	open
Brickhouse Pizza Bread n Bagel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	302 Washington St	open
Burritos California \| Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	302 Washington St	open
Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	520 W Washington	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	425 8th Ave NE	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	850 Lum Park Rd	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3325 Oak Street	open
CC'S Bar	Bar		121 Washington St NE	open
Cherry Berry	Dessert	Dessert	15091 Edgewood Dr	open
Chick N Rice	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	603 Laurel St	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	15323 Edgewood Dr	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	15323 Edgewood Dr	open
Coco Moon Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	601 Laurel St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12 Washington St 12 Washington St	open
Dairy Queen Grill and Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	522 C St NE	open
Dennis Drummond Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7890 Lakeview Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	413 W Washington Street	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3 Washington St NE	open
Dunmire's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	12110 MN-210	open
Dunmire's Bar and Grill	Bar		12110 MN	open
Dunmire's on the Lakes	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	19090 MN-371	open
Eagles Club	Bar		124 Front St	open
El Potro Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	320 S 7th St	open
El Tequila	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	15840 Audubon Way	open
Erbert & Gerbert's	Other	Sandwiches	404 W Washington St	open
Ernie's on Gull	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	10424 Gull Point Rd	open
Famous Dave's Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	15674 Edgewood Dr	open
Fancy Pants Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	409 W Washington St	open
Flame Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	15175 Edgewood Dr Ste 140	open
Four Seas Super Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	403 8th Ave NE	open
Foy Hospitality Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10424 Gull Point Rd	open
Front Street Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	616 Front St	open
Gcp Ii Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		521 W Washington St	open
Giovanni's Frozen Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	712 Thiesse Dr	open
Giovanni's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	625 Oak St	open
Goody's Gourmet Treats	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1531 Northern Pacific Rd	open
Green Lantern Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	19121 State Highway 18	open
Green Mill Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2115 S 6th St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	119 Washington St	open
Hassie's Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers	Hwy 210	open
Holland's Watkins Products	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16118 Miles Cir	open
Irma's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	11000 Craguns Dr	open
Iwona's Pierogies	Food truck		Local 218, 723 Mill Ave	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	201 Washington St NE	open
JJ's Bird's Nest	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		26915 MN-18	open
Jocai	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Juice / smoothies	17192 State Highway 371	open
Jr's Junction	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	22974 CR-2	open
Jr's No. 19 BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	302 Washington St	open
Jr1 Investments Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18071 Theater Rd	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	522 C St NE	open
Knotty Pine Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	707 Laurel St	open
Lakes Area Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12857 County 18 SW	open
Last Turn Saloon	Bar · Casual dining		214 S 8th St	open
Legacy Dining Room	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11000 Craguns Dr	open
Liquor Pigz Sports Bar	Bar		718 Laurel St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	807 Washington St	open
Loco Espress Coffee House & Boutique	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1521 Northern Pacific Rd	open
Lodge Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6967 Lake Forest Rd	open
Los Compas	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14136 Baxter Dr	open
Madden Brothers Market & Coffee Bar	Coffee shop	Coffee	11266 Pine Beach Peninsula Rd	open
Maid-Rite Brainerd The BARN Wine Bar	Casual dining	American	711 Washington St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	521 W Washington St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	505 Ne Washington St	open
Mickey's Pizza and Subs Mickey's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	417 S 5th St	open
Midtown Nutrition Brainerd Herbalife	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	514 Washington St	open
Mission Point	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	11266 Pine Beach Peninsula Rd	open
Northwind Grille	Casual dining	American	603 Laurel St	open
Notch 8 Restaurant and Catering	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1511 Northern Pacific Rd	open
O'Neary's Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	305 S 7th St	open
Oak Lawn Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		15483 MN-18	open
Paradise Resort Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		10067 Leisure Ln SE	open
Parfecto Pizza At Madden's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11266 Pine Beach Peninsula Rd	open
Perkins at 623 W Washington Street Brainerd, MN Perkins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	623 W Washington Street	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery Perkins American Food Co.	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · American	623 W Washington St	open
Rafferty's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14136 Baxter Dr	open
Rafferty's Take & Bake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	409 W Washington St	open
Rays Wild Rice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	6545 County Rd 45	open
Restaurant El loro baxter	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	15840 Audubon Way	open
Rio Açaí	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	15091 Edgewood Dr N	open
Roundhouse Brewery	Brewery / taproom		1551 Northern Pacific Rd	open
Sage On Laurel	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	American	606 Laurel St	open
Sakura Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	9 Washington St NE	open
Sawmill Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Washington St	open
Se'z Bar	Bar		707 Laurel St	open
Shep's on 6th	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		315 S 6th St	open
Sheps on 6th	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Shirley's Classic Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		300 Highway 25 S	open
Skillet Restaurant	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	123 Washington St NE	open
Slice On Oak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	625 Oak St	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	15091 Edgewood Dr (Baxter-Hwy 371 & Wo, Ida Rd)	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	217 Washington St NE	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	15091 Edgewood Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	421 W Washington St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	Hwys 210 And 25	open
Sweet Sinsations	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	14136 Baxter Dr Ste Westgate	open
Taco John's Taco John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	301 Washington St NE	open
The Classic Grill at Madden's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	11672 Co Hwy 18	open
The Lakes Grill And Bar	Bar		18071 State Highway 371	open
The Lobby Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11226 Pine Beach Peninsula Rd	open
The Local 218 The Local	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		723 Mill Ave	open
The Log Cabin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	320 S 7th St	open
The Old Waterfall	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	18512 MN-371	open
The Shake Shack	Bar	American	6228 Birchdale Rd	open
The Side Track Bar and Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		18071 MN-371	open
The Stand on Woodrow	Bakery	Bakery	14643 Woodrow Rd	open
The Sweet Spot	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	712 Laurel St	open
The Vangstad Creamery Cart	Food truck			open
The Woods Restaurant and Bar	Casual dining · Bar		19624 County Road 3	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop	Coffee	520 W Washington St	open
Triangle Drive-In Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	714 Mill Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	510 W. Washington	open
Wheelie Bar	Bar · Casual dining		Bir Ntrnc	open
Wings Airport Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	16384 Airport Rd #7	open
Woodgrain Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		7500 Co Rd 23	open
Ya Sure Kombucha	Brewery / taproom		216 S 8th St	open
Yesterday's Gone Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		219 S 9th St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	63	50	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1995	52	39	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1996	57	42	—	—	—	15	SIC1987
1997	61	45	—	—	—	16	SIC1987
1998	65	47	22	21	4	14	NAICS1997
1999	66	46	20	19	7	16	NAICS1997
2000	65	45	23	17	5	15	NAICS1997
2001	60	43	21	19	3	15	NAICS1997
2002	59	44	20	22	2	12	NAICS1997
2003	61	42	19	21	2	14	NAICS2002
2004	62	42	18	19	5	15	NAICS2002
2005	58	42	19	18	5	13	NAICS2002
2006	55	39	16	19	4	14	NAICS2002
2007	55	34	13	17	4	16	NAICS2002
2008	55	35	15	16	4	16	NAICS2007
2009	56	37	14	19	4	15	NAICS2007
2010	57	36	14	18	4	16	NAICS2007
2011	56	36	15	17	4	16	NAICS2007
2012	62	44	20	18	6	15	NAICS2012
2013	58	41	21	15	5	14	NAICS2012
2014	55	41	22	14	5	12	NAICS2012
2015	51	39	20	13	6	11	NAICS2012
2016	55	42	23	14	5	12	NAICS2012
2017	54	41	23	12	6	12	NAICS2017
2018	57	44	25	13	6	11	NAICS2017
2019	59	49	25	17	7	8	NAICS2017
2020	59	48	26	13	8	9	NAICS2017
2021	67	53	31	12	9	10	NAICS2017
2022	67	54	30	13	10	8	NAICS2022
2023	67	55	28	14	12	8	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56401. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.