BMIE Market 56441

Crow Wing County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±298 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,694 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±168 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,596 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,066 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$50,298 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,776 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	55.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$856 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$208,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,135 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	89.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56441
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56441. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.3	39	40%	+15.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.1	37	35%	+13.0
Market Momentum Score	69.6	70	25%	+17.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,348	54	40%	+21.6
Median household income (ACS)	50,298	15	40%	+6.1
Households (ACS)	1,694	58	20%	+11.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.9	18	25%	+4.4
Population (ACS)	3,348	54	20%	+10.8
Median household income (ACS)	50,298	15	20%	+3.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.2	79	50%	+39.5
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	57.1	70	20%	+13.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Bar 11 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Casual dining 4 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Black Dog Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · Sushi · Japanese	26914 State Highway 6	open
Bridge Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		26969 MN-6	open
Burritos California \| Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1 E Main St	open
Cana Wine Bar	Bar		64 1st Ave SW	open
Croft Kitchen And Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 1st Ave NW	open
Croft Kitchen and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	7 1st Ave NW	open
Cuyuna Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1 E Main St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	714 Oak St	open
Drunken Noodle Crosby	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Noodles / ramen / pho	102 W Main St	open
Hard Water Lounge	Bar		110 W Main St	open
Hot Stuff Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1029 Oak St	open
Iron Range Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6 W Main St	open
Midway Bar	Bar		426 Mesaba St	open
Mixed Company A Kava House	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	128 W Main St	open
North Country Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	12 W Main St	open
Rafferty's Original and Woodfired Pizza Rafferty's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	30 W Main St	open
Spalding House	Bar		1 W Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	210 W Main St	open
The Crosby Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		212 W Main St	open
The Social	Bar		218 W Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	10	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	12	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	12	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	6	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	5	4	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	12	9	4	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	12	9	4	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	12	9	5	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	15	11	5	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	14	10	4	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	16	12	4	7	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	15	11	4	6	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56441. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.